After an exciting Daytona 500, the NASCAR Cup Series will head out west to California’s Auto Club Speedway. This year’s event marks the final Cup Series event on the track’s current two-mile configuration. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR prop bets and matchup bets for this weekend’s action. One matchup (or head-to-head) bet for Tyler Reddick stands out.
I handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and you can read about my bets here. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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What Can We Expect from Legacy Motor Club?
Erik Jones came out of nowhere to almost win last year’s race at Auto Club. He qualified second, finished both stages in second, led 18 laps and brought his No. 43 Chevrolet home in third. He went on to win at one of Auto Club’s comparator tracks, Darlington, in September.
Jones has routinely exceeded expectations at tracks that feature a lot of tire wear like Auto Club. He owns the second-best average finish at Auto Club among active Cup Series drivers (10.2) and the third-best at Darlington (10.7). He has 10 top-10 finishes over only 15 starts.
But Jones’ teammate, Noah Gragson, has also flashed tons of talent on these tracks. Last year, Gragson won both the fall Xfinity Series race at Darlington and the lone event at Homestead. He finished second in both the spring Darlington race and at Auto Club. He has three wins and 10 top-5s across 15 Xfinity Series starts at the three tracks.
Both Jones and Gragson sit in the plus money to score a top-10 result at Auto Club. At +115, Jones’ implied odds (46.5%) are longer than his raw hit rate in the Cup Series. (60%) And at +430, Gragson’s implied odds (18.8%) are worse than his raw odds of scoring a top-10 finish in a 36-car field (27.8%).
Best NASCAR Prop Bets: Erik Jones Top 10 (+115 for 0.75 Unit) at FanDuel
Noah Gragson Top 10 (+430 for 0.25 Unit) at FanDuel
Will Tyler Reddick Outrun the Melon Man?
Last year, Tyler Reddick dominated at Auto Club in the No. 8 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing — until he suffered a late-race tire issue. He now drives the No. 45 Toyota for 23XI Racing, but the team change shouldn’t affect his performance much. Reddick has excelled in whatever equipment he has driven.
Reddick has outrun Ross Chastain routinely at this track. He beat Chastain in 2022 despite his late-race issue, scoring a 24th-place finish to Chastain’s 29th. He finished 11th here in 2020, ahead of 17th-place Chastain, who was then behind the wheel of the No. 6 Ford in relief of Ryan Newman. Reddick also beat out Chastain in two Xfinity Series races, although Chastain found himself in underfunded JD Motorsports equipment for both events.
NASCAR matchup bets are the most similar to traditional moneyline and spread wagers because one driver must win. The raw odds are 50%. DraftKings Sportsbook has Reddick at -105 (51.2%) to finish ahead of Chastain. Reddick’s impressive resume at Auto Club — and Chastain’s relatively unremarkable one — make it surprising that the book is favoring Chastain at -115 (53.5%). Bettors should lock in this NASCAR head-to-head bet for a positive return on investment. Readers who are yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best NASCAR Bet: Tyler Reddick (-105 at DraftKings) vs. Ross Chastain
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