We broke even at Talladega last weekend, but I’m looking forward to locking in a profit this weekend. Let’s get back in the green. With a race at Dover Motor Speedway on tap, let’s get into the top NASCAR matchup and prop bets for Sunday’s Wurth 400, including Josh Berry.
I handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and you can read about my bets here. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the Wurth 400 | Dover
Can Josh Berry Get Another Top-10?
With Alex Bowman on the shelf for 3-4 weeks due to a back injury, Josh Berry will take over the No. 48 Chevrolet for this weekend’s race at Dover. Berry, a full-time Xfinity Series driver for JR Motorsports, is no stranger to the Cup Series. He just subbed in for Chase Elliott for five races and scored one top-10 finish, a runner-up at Martinsville.
We’re trusting Berry to deliver this weekend because of his short-track background and impressive resume at Dover in the Xfinity Series. Berry cut his teeth driving late models for Dale Earnhardt Jr. at the Nashville Fairgrounds, a track similar to Dover in that it features plenty of tire wear.
But it’s Berry’s recent Xfinity Series results at Dover that stand out. He scored a runner-up finish in his debut at the track in 2021 after leading 48 laps. He followed that performance up with a victory here in 2022 after leading 55 laps. Unsurprisingly, Berry is also the betting favorite to win this weekend’s Xfinity Series event at Dover.
Best NASCAR Top 10 Bet: Josh Berry +175 for 0.5 Units at Bet365
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Can Brad Keselowski Beat Out Ryan Blaney?
Dover Motor Speedway has often proven unkind to Ryan Blaney. The driver of the No. 12 Ford has an average finish of 19.5 here in 12 starts with only 45 laps led. Team Penske performed terribly here last season with Blaney finishing a team-best 26th. Let’s bet on them to struggle again come Sunday — or whenever the rain forces this race to take place.
BetMGM has lined Blaney up against Brad Keselowski for this weekend’s action, and they have stacked the juice in favor of Blaney. However, Keselowski has an average finish of 13.1 here in 24 starts, including a win and 403 laps led, and his RFK Racing team fared much better than Penske here last year. Keselowski finished 20th while his teammate, Chris Buescher, finished seventh.
Blaney and Keselowski have gone head-to-head at Dover 12 times in their career. Keselowski has earned the better result in nine of those races. Although he now drivers for a less well-resourced team than Blaney, the equipment doesn’t make up for the performance disparity, especially not when the odds are stacked in Blaney’s favor. Let’s play the underdog Keselowski at a friendly price of -105 at BetMGM.
Best NASCAR Matchup Bet: Brad Keselowski vs. Ryan Blaney -105 for 0.75 Units at BetMGM
