Well, we went from up 1.4 units to down a half-unit on the final lap of last weekend’s Truck Series race at Texas. We correctly targeted Nick Sanchez, who led 168 of the 172 laps in Fort Worth before getting wrecked while leading. Good process, poor results. This weekend’s race will get underway on Saturday, April 8 at 7 p.m. ET — and our expert is here to make his Weather Guard Truck Race on Dirt predictions to help you find the best NASCAR Truck Series bets for the action at Bristol Motor Speedway.
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Best NASCAR Truck Series Bets & Prediction
Will Stewart Friesen Return to Victory Lane?
Despite the surplus of Cup Series drivers dipping into the Truck Series this weekend, I recommend getting action on dirt-track star Stewart Friesen. He grew up racing dirt modifieds, or big block modifieds, and was a star in the SuperDIRT Series before pivoting to a full-time schedule in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series.
Friesen’s experience with dirt track racing has helped him put together impressive runs on dirt in NASCAR. He dominated at Eldora Speedway when the Truck Series still ran there, by recording one win, three top-3s and 151 laps led in four starts. He also recorded the best driver rating in two of those events. Importantly, Friesen put together an impressive run at Knoxville Raceway last year — although he finished fifth and failed to lead a lap, he recorded the best driver rating for the event.
Friesen will have to compete with several experienced Cup Series regulars this weekend: Joey Logano (5-1), William Byron (7-1) and Chase Briscoe (8-1). Logano, who will drive the No. 66 Ford for ThorSport Racing, won here in the Cup Series in 2021 and is the favorite. However, the track has become much more like a traditional dirt venue since, as the clay used in 2021 came from different areas and wasn’t applied in a way that created progressive banking. Bristol’s clay has since been mixed together, creating a uniform texture, and the track featured uniform banking last year. Logano finished third after failing to lead a lap in last year’s Cup Series race here.
Neither Byron nor Briscoe should scare bettors that much this weekend. Byron will pilot the No. 51 Chevrolet for Kyle Busch Motorsports but is yet to lead on a dirt track in any of NASCAR’s premier divisions. Briscoe won at Eldora in the Truck Series back in 2017, but he’ll drive an uncompetitive No. 22 Ford for AM Racing. That team has recorded no wins, two top-5s and a single lap led in 128 races since 2016.
Best NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Bet: Stewart Friesen 12-1 for 0.1 Unit at Caesars Sportsbook
Best NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Bet: Stewart Friesen +170 for 0.4 Unit at Caesars Sportsbook
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What Can Jonathan Davenport Do This Weekend?
Another star of the dirt track world, Jonathan Davenport, will attempt this weekend’s Weather Guard Truck Race. Davenport will drive the No. 7 Chevrolet for Spire Motorsports before driving the No. 13 Chevrolet for Kaulig Racing in the Cup Series race. Although Davenport is yet to make a start in the Truck Series, the books aren’t treating the dirt track veteran with nearly enough respect.
Davenport is one of the most decorated active dirt track racers. He has won the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series championship three times. He has also won the World 100, a marquee event held annually at Eldora Speedway, a whopping five times. He even won the Late Model Knoxville Nationals in 2022. His talents won’t translate perfectly to Bristol, which differs from most venues Davenport has raced at because it’s a converted asphalt track, but they should give him a significant advantage.
More importantly, Davenport’s No. 7 Chevrolet has shown race-winning speed in the past. Chase Elliott drove this truck to a seventh-place finish here last year while recording the sixth-best driver rating. The truck led 96 laps across three events last year. William Byron even brought it home in first at Martinsville. Yet because Davenport lacks Truck Series experience, he sits at 40-1 at DraftKings to win the race. That number is quite off-market relative to the 30-1 at Caesars and the 28-1 at BetMGM. Let’s wrap up this week’s betting card with a quarter-unit of exposure to Davenport.
Best NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Bet: Jonathan Davenport 40-1 for 0.05 Unit at DraftKings Sportsbook
Best NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Bet: Jonathan Davenport Top-5 4-1 for 0.2 Unit at Caesars Sportsbook
