After Austin Hill scored yet another superspeedway win at Daytona, the Xfinity Series heads out west to Auto Club for its final event on the track’s current two-mile configuration. The Production Alliance Group 300 will get underway on Saturday, Feb. 25 at 5 p.m. ET — although inclement weather may cause that to change. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. Cole Custer stands out as the favorite early this week, but you’ll want to head to one sportsbook to find value.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets & Prediction
Can Cole Custer Win This Race Again?
Cole Custer, a full-time Cup Series driver in 2022, still ran a handful of Xfinity Series events in the No. 07 Ford for SS-Green Light Racing, including last year’s race at Auto Club. He piloted the car to a first-place finish, his second win at this track in his last two starts. He led 80 of 165 laps after starting second.
Custer’s dominant win last year was arguably less impressive than his victory in 2019. That year’s field included Kyle Busch in the No. 18 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric. Custer still led the second-most laps (29) and edged out Busch late for the win.
While this year’s entry list features some other big names, none should threaten Custer. Tyler Reddick will drive the No. 24 Toyota for Sam Hunt Racing, but that team is yet to win a race. His odds of 6-1 are far too short. Ross Chastain will drive the No. 91 for DGM Racing, but he attempted three races in that car last year and finished outside of the top 15 twice. Austin Dillon will take over the No. 10 for Kaulig Racing but has led a total of one lap over 13 Cup and Xfinity Series starts here.
The books have Reddick or Justin Allgaier as Custer’s main competition at 5-1. That is inefficient. Although Allgaier has made 13 Xfinity Series starts at Auto Club, he is yet to find victory lane. Worse, he has only one top-5 finish to his name through that stretch and has led only 15 laps. Custer has led 109 in his last two Xfinity Series starts here alone.
Custer’s recent dominance at Auto Club — at least in the Xfinity Series — has led the books to stack the odds in his favor. Custer sits at 7-2 at Caesars Sportsbook and 4-1 at BetMGM. However, bettors who shop around and head to DraftKings Sportsbook can still get Custer at 5-1. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets by placing a $5 wager!
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Cole Custer (+500 for 0.25 Unit) at DraftKings
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Can Brandon Jones Finish the Job?
After Noah Gragson left JR Motorsports in the offseason, the team tapped Brandon Jones to replace him in the No. 9 Chevrolet. Jones, a longtime Joe Gibbs Racing driver, had some impressive runs here. He qualified third, led three laps and finished stage two in second place before crashing out last year. He led a race-high 73 laps after starting from the pole in 2020 before late-race issues pinned him multiple laps down.
Jones could give Custer some trouble in this race. Although we’re yet to see Jones finish one of his strong runs at Auto Club, his numbers at tracks with similarly high levels of tire wear are encouraging. He owns one win, four top-5’s and 10 top-10s across 18 starts at Darlington and Homestead. Gragson drove the No. 9 car that Jones takes over to two wins and two runner-up finishes at Auto Club, Darlington and Homestead last season.
Six drivers own shorter outright odds than Jones, including Reddick and Chastain — along with two of Jones’ teammates, Allgaier and Josh Berry. Jones may not have world-beating talent, but he has a better shot of winning than his 12-1 odds (7.7%) suggest. Bettors can find him at that price on DraftKings or BetMGM, but Caesars has him priced up at 9-1.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Brandon Jones (+1200 for 0.15 Unit) at DraftKings
When Will Sheldon Creed Get it Together?
Few Xfinity Series drivers have as much raw talent as Sheldon Creed. The driver of the No. 2 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing will win in this series eventually — it’s just a question of when. He has eight Truck Series wins to his name, two of which came at Darlington, a comparator track. Creed led a jaw-dropping 43.7% of possible laps across three starts at Darlington.
Creed took a while to adjust to the Xfinity Series car last year. However, by the end of the year, he seemed to have gotten it under control. He finished second at Darlington in September after qualifying third and leading 47 laps. He went on to score three more top-10 finishes through the end of the year, including another runner-up at Martinsville.
With odds of 33-1 at BetMGM, Creed is mispriced. He gained some meaningful experience by competing in this event last year and should run considerably better than he did then. Creed has the same odds as Joe Graf Jr., a driver who once failed even to qualify for an Xfinity Series event in equipment equivalent to Creed’s. While Graf will pilot the No. 19 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing in the Production Alliance Group 300, he and Creed are nowhere near the same ballpark.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Sheldon Creed (+3300 for 0.05 Unit) at BetMGM
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