The 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series season will get underway at Daytona International Speedway with the Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. 300. The green flag will wave over this year’s campaign on Sunday, Feb. 18 at 5 p.m. ET. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. Parker Kligerman’s outright odds make him stand out as a value bet early this week.
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Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets & Expert Prediction for the Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. 300 | Feb. 18
How Will Cole Custer’s Return to the Xfinity Series Begin?
Cole Custer, twice an Xfinity Series championship runner-up, will return to the circuit after struggling in the Cup Series. Custer has run 110 Xfinity Series races over a six-year career. He has bagged 10 wins and 75 top-10s through that span, but he doesn’t have much to show for his efforts at superspeedways.
Custer has participated in nine Xfinity Series events at superspeedways. He scored one top-10, a ninth-place finish in 2019, and led only eight laps. He didn’t develop much as a superspeedway racer in the Cup Series, either. Custer scored one top-10 through 11 starts at Daytona and Talladega.
Yet despite Custer’s lackluster superspeedway resume, the books have him as one of the favorites for Saturday’s action. This decision creates a fantastic opportunity for bettors to fade him on matchup and group markets. Although Caesars Sportsbook lists his matchup opponent as Josh Berry, another unremarkable superspeedway driver, the Top Ford markets offer more value.
Six Fords are entered in Saturday’s Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. 300. Cole Custer is the favorite to finish first among them at -160. Riley Herbst (+220) and Ryan Sieg (+475) slot in right behind him, ahead of castoffs like Brett Moffitt (+1000), Kyle Sieg (+1500) and Joe Graf Jr. (+3000). Fading Custer by splitting a unit between Herbst, Sieg and Moffitt should yield a positive return.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets: Riley Herbst Top Ford (+220 for 0.55 Unit) at Caesars
Ryan Sieg Top Ford (+475 for 0.3 Unit)
Brett Moffitt Top Ford (+1000 for 0.15 Unit)
Will Parker Kligerman Score a Massive Upset?
Let’s return to some more traditional, less complicated bets. Because so few drivers win in the Xfinity Series in any given year, the books are stacking the odds on the favorites. Austin Hill (7-1) and Justin Haley (7-1) are rightfully favored but don’t offer enough value at their current price.
Instead, bettors should look to the underdogs. Parker Kligerman (30-1), who has worked in NASCAR broadcasting while driving a part-time Truck Series schedule for the past few seasons, will get a chance to go full-time for Big Machine Racing this year. He’ll pilot the No. 48 Chevrolet that has proven surprisingly plucky at superspeedways of late. Tyler Reddick scored a fourth-place finish after leading 21 laps in this car at Atlanta. Kligerman brought it home in sixth at Talladega last October.
Kligerman has an impressive superspeedway resume. He has won at Talladega twice in the Truck Series, once in 2012 and again in 2017. He owns five top-5 finishes at Daytona and Talladega across 13 starts. Kligerman also owns one top-5 and three top-10s at these tracks across six Xfinity Series starts.
Best NASCAR Bet: Parker Kligerman (+3000 for 0.1 Unit) at FanDuel
Can Kaz Grala Win At Daytona Again?
Like Kligerman, Kaz Grala has finally earned another shot at a full-time ride. Grala hasn’t worked in broadcasting but has served as a part-time driver across the top three series of NASCAR. He ran last year’s Daytona 500. Before that, he scored a top-10 finish in his Cup Series debut back in 2020.
Grala will take over the No. 26 Toyota for Sam Hunt Racing. Although the car hasn’t done much, John Hunter Nemechek steered it to three top-5 finishes over the last two seasons. The fact the underfunded team had a revolving door of drivers behind the steering wheel didn’t help them develop. Getting a talented guy like Grala full-time should lead this team in the right direction.
Grala also boasts a solid superspeedway record. He won at Daytona in the Truck Series back in 2017. He made six Cup Series starts at superspeedway tracks and owns one top-10 result and 10 laps led. Most importantly, Grala has scored a top-five finish in both of his Xfinity Series starts at Daytona, both of which came in backmarker equipment.
The books are criminally underrating Grala because his No. 26 Toyota has often featured far inferior drivers behind the wheel. But Grala has demonstrated more than enough talent to bring this car home up front, and bettors can find a ton of value on the following markets for the Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. 300.
Best NASCAR Bets: Kaz Grala (+8000 for 0.05 Unit)
Kaz Grala Top 5 (+800 for 0.2 Unit)
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