He’s ba-ack! After a one-year hiatus, the bane of the NASCAR Xfinity Series, Kyle Busch, will make his return. The books have him as short as +180 for the event. The Alsco Uniforms 300 will get underway on Saturday, Mar. 3 at 6:30 p.m. ET in sunny Las Vegas. Josh Berry stands out as a value bet early this week.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets & Prediction | Alsco Uniforms 300 | Las Vegas
Will Josh Berry Bring Home Another Win?
If Kyle Busch hadn’t entered this year’s event, Josh Berry should have opened as the favorite. Yet three other drivers, John Hunter Nemechek (9-2), Justin Allgaier (6-1) and Cole Custer (6-1) all have shorter odds than Berry (7-1). Yet unlike those three drivers, Berry has actually driven to victory lane here in the Xfinity Series. He’s even done so twice in four stars — the same number of wins that Busch has here in 15 attempts!
My decision to fade Busch and play Berry hinges on equipment, not talent. Of the seven events held at smooth, high-speed intermediates last year, JR Motorsports scored four wins and 17 top-5s. Joe Gibbs Racing compiled only two wins and nine top-5s, while Richard Childress Racing and its affiliated teams like Kaulig Racing, for whom Busch will race on Saturday, scored just one win and seven top-5s. Kaulig accounted for just two of those top-5s.
JR Motorsports dominated both events in Las Vegas last year. The team’s four drivers combined for one win and six top-5s here in two events and led 291 of the 401 laps (72.5%). Berry scored the singular win for the team in the October race. Every RCR-affiliated driver combined for one top-5 and 63 laps led, most of which came early and as a function of A.J. Allmendinger starting on the pole both times.
Busch will eventually score his 103rd Xfinity Series win, but I suspect it won’t come at a high-speed intermediate. But because the books have a pretty massive hold percentage on this race — Caesars Sportsbook (44%) and DraftKings Sportsbook (42%) would still pocket a profit even if Busch withdrew and their odds didn’t move — I’m limiting my exposure on Saturday’s outright markets.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Josh Berry 7-1 for 0.1 Unit at DraftKings
Also Bet: Josh Berry vs. Cole Custer +110 for 0.25 Unit at Caesars
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Can Brandon Jones Bounce Back After Auto Club?
Last Sunday’s race at Auto Club did not go as planned for Brandon Jones. He came up on Tyler Reddick’s No. 24 Toyota and spun out after making contact with his nose, sending him into the infield and functionally ending his day. Although it was a poor decision on Jones’ part, his JR Motorsports equipment makes him an intriguing betting pick for this weekend’s race.
Jones performed reasonably well at high-speed intermediates last season. He scored two top-5s and four top-10s across the seven events and led 13 laps. The No. 9 Chevrolet he’ll drive this year, then driven by Noah Gragson, scored two wins and six top-5s in those races. Although Jones may have less talent than Gragson, he should keep his car at the front of the field.
Jones’ best runs usually come at tracks like Las Vegas. He has an average finish of 9.3 here across 12 starts, including a pair of top-5s, over 12 starts. He has an average finish of 8.2 with two top-5s at Michigan and an average finish of 10.1 with two wins and three top-5s at Kansas.
With JR Motorsports equipment finishing in the top 5 a whopping 62% of the time at the seven comparator events last year, Jones has a better shot of scoring another such finish than the implied odds available at Caesars Sportsbook (33.3%) suggest. Bettors should grab Jones there before the line moves after qualifying. Readers yet to register there can get their first bet on Caesars up to $1,250!
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Brandon Jones Top 5 2-1 for 0.25 Unit at Caesars
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