The NASCAR Xfinity Series returns to action after a brief hiatus for this weekend’s event at Darlington Raceway. The Shriners Children’s 200 will get underway on Saturday, May 13 at 1:30 p.m. ET. Darlington always brings us impressive racing, and I’m looking forward to the event. John Hunter Nemechek stands out as a sharp NASCAR Xfinity Series bet at Darlington, and he features heavily into my predictions for this race.
The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the Shriners Children’s 200 at Darlington: Race Preview
What Can We Expect at Darlington?
Darlington Raceway is a 1.366-mile, egg-shaped oval track with a rough surface that chews up tires. A driver’s talent matters a lot more here than equipment, although top-tier drivers usually have good rides. The drivers with the most career Xfinity Series wins at this track include some of the sport’s best, like Mark Martin (8), Denny Hamlin (5), Jeff Burton (3) and Dale Earnhardt Sr. (3).
JR Motorsports dominated at this track last season. Justin Allgaier won the spring race, one spot ahead of Noah Gragson, and Gragson won the fall event. The two of them combined to lead 215 (73.1%) of the laps. Three of the top-5 spots were controlled by Chevrolets in the spring. The manufacturer swept the top-5 in the fall. Non-Chevrolet drivers combined to lead only 21 (7.1%) of the laps.
This weekend’s oddsboard is skewed by several Cup Series regulars joining the field. Kyle Larson will pilot the No. 10 Chevrolet for Kaulig Racing and is a heavy favorite at a price of 5-2 on BetMGM. Ross Chastain will take over the No. 91 Chevrolet for DGM Racing, a team he is yet to lead a lap or finish better than 17th with at an oval. Ty Dillon will drive the No. 3 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing as well.
A pair of Truck Series regulars will also dip their toes into the Xfinity Series on Saturday as well. Carson Hocevar, who won at Texas a few weeks ago, will drive the No. 77 Chevrolet for Spire Motorsports as the team hopes to make its debut after withdrawing from Dover due to the rain. Corey Heim, who won at Martinsville, will pilot the No. 24 Toyota for Sam Hunt Racing.
But despite the number of non-Xfinity Series drivers in the field, it’s worth noting that the last six events at Darlington were all won by Xfinity Series regulars. Allgaier beat out Tyler Reddick last spring; Gragson held off Larson, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain and Ty Dillon last fall. No Cup Series drivers dipped down in the spring race in 2021, but Gragson also held off Reddick, both Dillon brothers and Denny Hamlin in the fall. Chase Briscoe, then a full-time Xfinity Series driver, beat out Kyle Busch in the spring of 2020; Brandon Jones held off Chastain and Hamlin in the fall.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the Shriners Children’s 200 at Darlington: Best Bets
John Hunter Nemechek Should Be the Favorite
All of the last three spring Darlington races were won by a driver who led multiple laps at Las Vegas a few weeks before. Five Xfinity Series regulars led at least two laps in this year’s race in Vegas: John Hunter Nemechek (45), Chandler Smith (118), Austin Hill (19), Justin Allgaier (10) and Josh Berry (2). JR Motorsports’ inability to do much in the desert leads me to believe that the advantage they held last year has waned.
We’re backing Nemechek because of his impressive resume at this track. He ran both Xfinity Series races at Darlington last year for Sam Hunt Racing, an underfunded Toyota team, and scored one top-5 and two top-10s. He didn’t have the speed to lead laps, but he does this year. Nemechek has already won twice this season and has led laps in seven of the 10 races run.
Nemechek’s impressive runs at Darlington date back years. He scored a top-10 finish here in the Cup Series for Front Row Motorsports in 2020. He has one win, one runner-up and two poles at Darlington in the Truck Series as well. Now that he has a top-notch Xfinity Series ride, I’m backing him to win Saturday’s event — or at least score a top-3 finish.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: John Hunter Nemechek +700 for 0.17 Units at BetMGM
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: John Hunter Nemechek Top-3 +210 for 0.33 Unit at Caesars
Did you know you can get your name on Zane Smith’s No. 38 Ford F-150 in the Craftsman Truck Series Race at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course — and $150 in bet credits? Register for Tipico Sportsbook today! More details and disclaimers for this exciting promotion can be found here.
Can Austin Hill Do Anything Here?
The No. 21 Chevrolet has already found victory lane three times this season with Austin Hill at the wheel, including this year’s event in Las Vegas. Hill has four top-5s and seven top-10s to his name as well. He leads Nemechek in the points standings by a four-point margin.
Yet the books aren’t treating Hill with much respect this weekend. He owns odds of 25-1 to win at BetMGM. He sits at 11-4 just to score a top-5 finish at Caesars Sportsbook! Hill hasn’t dominated at Darlington in either the Xfinity or Truck Series, but he has four top-10s to his name across six starts.
I’m not jumping on Hill to win on Saturday, but it’s hard to pass up his top-5 odds. Hill, unlike the Cup and Truck Series regulars in the field, has the incentive to bring his car home in the top-5: points. Those guys are either just dipping down in hopes of scoring a win or jumping up to test the waters.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Austin Hill Top-5 +375 for 0.25 Unit at Caesars
