After a one-week hiatus, the NASCAR Xfinity Series is back for the Tennessee Lottery 250 at Nashville Superspeedway. The last time you saw this column, we hit on A.J. Allmendinger to score a top-3 — albeit at odds of only -120 (54.6%). Even though our other bet didn’t hit, we still secured a quarter-unit profit. This year’s Tennessee Lottery 250 will get underway on Saturday, June 24 at 3:30 p.m. ET. Sheldon Creed and Zane Smith stand out as sharp NASCAR Xfinity Series bets for Nashville — at least on the top-5 markets.
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NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the Tennessee Lottery 250 at Nashville: Race Preview
Which Non-Regulars are Entered?
This weekend’s action in Nashville will feature a few Cup Series regulars. Ty Gibbs takes over the No. 19 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing, making him one of the favorites for this weekend’s event. A.J. Allmendinger will drive the No. 10 Chevrolet for Kaulig Racing as well, and Ty Dillon will drive the No. 4 Chevrolet for JD Motorsports.
Two big-name Truck Series regulars are also entered for this weekend’s Xfinity Series event. Zane Smith will pilot the No. 28 Ford for RSS Racing with help from Stewart-Haas Racing. Aric Almirola just won at Sonoma in the No. 28. Carson Hocevar will drive the No. 77 Chevrolet for Spire Motorsports as well, marking the third Xfinity Series start he has made for the team. He finished sixth at Darlington and eighth at Charlotte.
How Should We Evaluate Nashville Superspeedway?
No track quite like Nashville Superspeedway exists elsewhere on the Xfinity Series schedule. At 1.3 miles long, the concrete oval is the longest concrete track on the schedule. Unlike Dover, a 1-mile concrete oval, Nashville is relatively flat. Nashville’s 14-degree banking is a sharp drop from Dover’s 24 degrees.
But despite their differences, performance at Dover has been reasonably predictive of performance at Nashville. In 2022, JR Motorsports dominated at Dover, controlling four of the top-5 spots and leading 70% of the race. The team went on to win at Nashville after leading 71.8% of the event.
Likewise, in 2021, Austin Cindric dominated at Dover, with two JR Motorsports drivers close behind. Cindric led 53 laps early in Nashville before crashing out, and the same two JR Motorsports drivers finished second and fourth. Kyle Busch, driving the No. 54 Toyota that Ty Dillon had driven to a top-5 at Dover, won the race.
This year, Joe Gibbs Racing looked the best at Dover. Ryan Truex steered the No. 19 Toyota to victory lane after leading a dominant 62% of the race by himself. He recorded a perfect driver rating of 150. JR Motorsports’ Josh Berry and Justin Allgaier finished second and third, but Austin Hill recorded the second-best driver rating with Richard Childress Racing. Hill’s teammate, Sheldon Creed, led the second-most laps and scored the eighth-best driver rating.
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NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the Tennessee Lottery 250 at Nashville: Best Bets
Who Are the Books Sleeping On the Most?
It’s not surprising to see Ty Gibbs slot in atop the oddsboard. Gibbs didn’t win this event last year, but the dominant speed the No. 19 Toyota showed at Dover and Gibbs’ own talent make for a fearsome opponent. I don’t hate the idea of backing Gibbs to win at odds of +360 (21.7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook, but I prefer backing a pair of underdogs to put together top-5 finishes.
First up: Sheldon Creed. Creed looked fast at Dover and led plenty of laps en route to an 11th-place finish. He crashed out of last year’s Nashville race early, and it looks like the books are punishing him for it. Creed owns outright odds of 25-1 (3.9%) at BetMGM and is 9-2 (18.2%) for a top-5 at Caesars. Creed owns just two top-5s this year but ranks second among drivers in average starting position (6.8). Look for him to qualify well, causing this line to shorten massively before the green flag flies.
We can’t leave out Zane Smith. Smith has made 11 Xfinity Series starts but none since 2021. He drove the No. 8 Chevrolet for JR Motorsports part-time in 2019 and recorded two top-5s in 10 starts. He ran two races at Dover and scored top-10s at both. Smith has run at Nashville twice in the Truck Series and owns a pair of top-5s as well. He has too much talent to be clocking in at 5-1 (16.7%) for a top-5 at BetMGM.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Sheldon Creed T5 9-2 for 0.25 Units at Caesars
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Zane Smith T5 5-1 for 0.25 Units at BetMGM
