A.J. Allmendinger scored an easy win at the Circuit of the Americas last weekend, cashing our outright bet on him to do so. Our longshot top-5 bets didn’t cash, but Parker Kligerman likely would have but for some late-race trouble. The ToyotaCare 250 will get underway on Saturday, April 1 at 1 p.m. ET. John Hunter Nemechek and Sheldon Creed stand out as sharp NASCAR Xfinity Series bets at Richmond.
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Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets & Prediction | ToyotaCare 250 | Richmond
Which Joe Gibbs Racing Driver Will Win?
A few weeks ago, we targeted Sammy Smith to score a top-5 at Phoenix. He ended up winning the whole race at 17-1. We backed Smith because Toyotas had dominated at short, flat ovals last year. The manufacturer won four of the six races at short, flat ovals, including last year’s race at Richmond. More importantly, a Toyota driver led the most laps in five of the six events.
John Hunter Nemechek didn’t dominate in Phoenix as I expected, but he brought his No. 20 Toyota home in a respectable sixth after leading 19 laps. Smith won the race in the No. 18, and Ryan Truex brought the No. 19 home in second place. Toyota led 55.5% of the race with the main competition coming from Justin Allgaier, who crashed out.
Nemechek controlled last year’s Xfinity Series race at Richmond in the No. 18 Toyota. He led the most laps but finished second to his teammate, Ty Gibbs. The duo combined to lead 249 of the 250 laps. Nemechek has the advantage of experience over his Toyota teammate, Sammy Smith, who is yet to make an Xfinity Series start at Richmond.
So what’s a reasonable price for Nemechek? Most books have him at 3-1. However, BetMGM has him at +325, while Bet365 has him at +333. That price feels fair, especially since there are no Cup Series regulars in the field this weekend. Nemechek should win this race at least 25% of the time. Let’s limit or size for this bet because the books are refusing to give out much value.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: John Hunter Nemechek +325 for 0.33 Unit at BetMGM
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Which Drivers Can Score a Surprise Top-5?
Six Toyotas are on the entry list for this weekend’s race. Nemechek and Smith, the full-time drivers for Joe Gibbs Racing, are the favorites among the manufacturer. Then, Joe Graf Jr., who will hop back into the No. 19 Toyota this weekend, has the next-best car. Sam Hunt Racing’s No. 24, piloted by Connor Mosack, and No. 26, piloted by Kaz Grala, round out the competitive cars. Timmy Hill’s No. 66 is the final Toyota on the entry list.
The lone book offering top-5 markets for Saturday’s race, Caesars, has learned from its mistake from Phoenix. Sammy Smith is no longer a plus-money option to score a top-5 result. However, Joe Graf Jr. comes in at 9-1. Kaz Grala sits at 25-1. Connor Mosack isn’t far behind at 35-1. The No. 19 that Graf Jr. will pilot finished second at Phoenix. Nemechek scored a top-5 at Phoenix in 2022 behind the wheel of Grala’s No. 26.
One non-Toyota driver also stands out as a solid plus-money play. Sheldon Creed, driver of the No. 2 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing, scored a third-place finish at Phoenix in March. He finished sixth at Phoenix last fall after scoring a runner-up at Martinsville and a fifth-place finish at New Hampshire. Creed has the talent necessary to bring home a surprise top-5 finish. I’m limiting my action to Creed and Grala, but bettors willing to throw a dart on Graf Jr. should consider doing so as well.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Sheldon Creed Top 5 3-2 for 0.5 Unit at Caesars
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Kaz Grala Top 5 25-1 for 0.1 Unit at Caesars
