After failing to win last week, Kyle Busch will again dip down into the NASCAR Xfinity Series in hopes of scoring his 103rd win in the series. The books have him as short as +290 for the event. The United Rentals 200 will get underway on Saturday, March 11 at 4:30 p.m. ET in sunny Phoenix. John Hunter Nemechek stands out as a high-value Xfinity Series bet.
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Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets & Prediction | United Rentals 200 | Phoenix
This is Toyota’s — and John Hunter Nemechek’s — Race to Lose
The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas dominated at short, flat ovals like Phoenix Raceway in the Xfinity Series last season. They won four of the six comparator events. However, Toyota drivers led no fewer than 33% of the laps in a given event, and they led the most laps in all but one. They led a commanding 69.2% of the total laps at short, flat ovals last year.
Ty Gibbs did most of that damage for Toyota, but John Hunter Nemechek did plenty despite driving on a part-time schedule. He led 11 laps of last year’s Phoenix race in the No. 26 Toyota for Sam Hunt Racing. He dominated at Richmond in the JGR No. 18 by leading 135 laps before finishing runner-up to Gibbs.
Nemechek picked up where Gibbs left off last year. He scored a runner-up finish at Daytona, a win at Auto Club and a sixth-place finish at Las Vegas. Nemechek has led laps in every Xfinity Series event so far and is probably the championship favorite at this point. He’s trading at only 4-1 on Caesars Sportsbook and 9-2 on DraftKings Sportsbook, so getting him at 5-1 via FanDuel Sportsbook is a great deal. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can score $200 in bonus bets after placing a $20 wager!
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: John Hunter Nemechek 5-1 for 0.2 Unit at FanDuel
Also Bet: John Hunter Nemechek vs. Justin Allgaier -110 for 0.8 Unit at DraftKings
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Will Sammy Smith Figure Things Out?
The next Joe Gibbs Racing development driver in the pipeline, Sammy Smith, made two starts on short, flat ovals last year. He started third at Martinsville in the fall and led a lap before finishing in 18th. He then started second at Phoenix and led 10 laps before finishing in 10th. Smith is yet to score a top-15 result this year but led laps at Auto Club.
Smith’s slow start to the year means that the books are lengthening his odds more than they should. However, bettors should note that Smith has made multiple starts at only one Xfinity Series track in his short career: Daytona. He’ll make his second start at Phoenix on Saturday, so he won’t be at as much of a disadvantage to the more experienced field.
Smith also usually qualifies well. He earned a top-5 qualifying spot for five of his nine Xfinity Series starts last year. He has struggled to qualify early this season but scored a career-best qualifying spot of second for last year’s fall race at Phoenix. Further, qualifying hasn’t been an issue for his teammates, so it’s not an equipment problem — Nemechek has scored a top-10 starting position for all three races so far.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Sammy Smith Top-5 2-1 for 0.5 Unit at Caesars
