After last weekend’s thriller at Atlanta Motor Speedway, the NASCAR Xfinity Series heads north to New England for this weekend’s event at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Justin Allgaier won a high-attrition race here last season. The action will get underway on Saturday, July 14 at 5 p.m. ET if Mother Nature agrees. Cole Custer stands out as a sharp NASCAR Xfinity Series bet for the Magic Mile.
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NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the Ambetter Health 200 at New Hampshire: Race Preview
Which Non-Regulars are Entered?
This year’s event at New Hampshire Motor Speedway has a fairly typical Xfinity Series field. Unlike last week, only one Cup Series regular is in the field: Austin Dillon will drive the No. 10 Chevrolet for Kaulig Racing.
But aside from Dillon, not many names on the entry list jump out. Joe Graf Jr. will drive the No. 19 for Joe Gibbs Racing but is unlikely to do much. Connor Mosack is back in the No. 24 Toyota for Sam Hunt Racing and Rajah Caruth is in the No. 44 Chevrolet for Alpha Prime Racing as well.
How Should We Evaluate New Hampshire?
New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a short, flat oval. It measures just over one mile in length with less than 10 degrees of banking in the corners. It features long straightaways and narrow, hairpin corners that are reminiscent of Martinsville Raceway.
Drivers who excel at NASCAR’s other short, flat ovals tend to also do well at New Hampshire. Last year, Justin Allgaier, who had led laps at both Phoenix and Martinsville, ended up winning at New Hampshire. The three prior Xfinity Series races at NHMS were all won by Christopher Bell.
Bell’s pair of NHMS wins as a full-time Xfinity Series driver came after he had led at both Phoenix and Richmond in those seasons. He dominated at Richmond in 2018 and at Phoenix in 2019. Martinsville wasn’t yet on the Xfinity Series schedule then.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the Ambetter Health 200 at New Hampshire: Best Bets
Can Cole Custer Keep Going Off?
Few drivers began the year more disappointingly than Cole Custer. Re-entering the series with championship expectations, Custer looked like a total flop after the first six races. He had just one top-10 finish to his name. But since then, Custer is yet to finish outside of the top 10. He has racked up two wins and eight top-5s over the last 11 races.
Custer has looked great at short, flat ovals this year. He led 38 laps at Phoenix after starting on the pole but finished only 12th. He then finished fifth at Richmond and third at Martinsville, winning another pole and leading five laps in the process. Custer’s two wins both came on road courses, which bodes well for his ability to handle NHMS’ lack of banking and hairpin corners.
Unlike other drivers in the field, Custer has run well here recently. John Hunter Nemechek, the favorite, last ran at NHMS in 2020. He finished 36th in a Cup Series event. Sammy Smith, another top betting option, has yet to make his New Hampshire debut. In contrast, Custer finished eighth here in a 2020 Cup Series race and 14th in 2021. He also scored a runner-up in his final Xfinity Series start here in 2019. Custer should have shorter odds than the +100 (50%) at Caesars to score a top-5.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Cole Custer T5 +100 for 0.25 Units at Caesars
Can Kaz Grala Show Off at His Home Track?
Kaz Grala, the driver of the No. 26 Toyota for Sam Hunt Racing, hasn’t done much to turn heads this season, but he has been consistently solid. The 24-year-old from Boston has piloted his No. 26 to one top-5, three top-10s and 11 top-20s. His average finish (18.9) ranks 15th among-full time Xfinity Series drivers. He ranks 18th in points, well below the playoff cut line, and is yet to lead a lap.
Saturday’s event at New Hampshire could go well for Grala. His lone top-5 of the season came at Richmond, another short, flat oval, where he finished fourth. Grala managed to bring his car from 38th to the front in that race. He also finished 15th at Martinsville and qualified fifth at Phoenix before finishing 34th.
This won’t be Grala’s first Xfinity Series start at NHMS. He has two 14th-place finishes here, one with Richard Childress Racing in 2019, the other with Fury Race Cars in 2018. Grala also recorded a pair of top-10 results at NHMS in the Truck Series with GMS Racing in 2016 and 2017. Although his odds of pulling off another top-5 are low, they’re higher than the 20-1 (4.8%) at Bet365.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Kaz Grala T5 +2000 for 0.07 Units at Bet365
