The NASCAR Xfinity Series rolls on with action at Darlington Raceway on Labor Day Weekend. The Xfinity Series playoffs are just two races away, so drivers looking to secure a spot in the field will have to drive aggressively. The Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 will get underway on Saturday, September 2 at 3:30 p.m. ET. John Hunter Nemechek stands out as a sharp NASCAR Xfinity Series bet for Darlington.
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NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 at Darlington: Race Preview
Xfinity Series Odds for Darlington
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 Race Preview
The first thing you'll notice when looking at the oddsboard for this weekend's Xfinity Series race is the surplus of Cup Series regulars in the field. Kyle Larson will pilot the No. 17 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports, Denny Hamlin will wheel the No. 19 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing and Kyle Busch will take over the No. 10 Chevrolet for Kaulig Racing. Ross Chastain will also drive the underfunded No. 91 Chevrolet for DGM Racing.
We had action on John Hunter Nemechek in the spring Darlington race because Cup regulars tend to skew the odds in favor of Xfinity Series drivers. Nemechek came off the last corner contending for the win -- only for him to make contact with Kyle Larson, sending him sliding through the infield for a fifth-place finish. Larson's win marked the first by a Cup Series regular at Darlington since Brad Keselowski won the Xfinity Series event here in 2018.
Cup regulars' lack of success at Darlington isn't due to a lack of trying, either. Hamlin almost always runs the Labor Day race here and only missed last year's event due to an injury. He usually leads laps but has a best finish of fourth since winning in 2017. Busch finished runner-up to Chase Briscoe in the 2020 spring race. Larson finished fifth in last year's Labor Day race as well.
Two other important trends are worth noting for Saturday's race. First, JR Motorsports has won four of the last five races here, with Justin Allgaier winning twice and Noah Gragson winning twice. Second, Chevrolets have accounted for all five wins through that sample and four of the five best driver ratings. The driver with the best driver rating won the race four of those five times as well, with Nemechek, a Toyota driver, being the exception in both cases.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 at Darlington: Best Bets
Xfinity Series Darlington Prediction: John Hunter Nemechek Goes Off
While Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are inarguably quite talented drivers, it's worth asking whether John Hunter Nemechek would be in conversation with them if he were given the same Cup Series equipment for as long. Nemechek often bested Busch in the Truck Series when the two were running the same equipment, and he ran a better race -- up until the last lap -- than Larson here in the spring. Nemechek piloted the underfunded No. 26 Toyota for Sam Hunt Racing to a pair of top-10s at Darlington in 2022, and his first race here in the No. 20 saw him win the pole, lead the most laps and record the best driver rating.
It won't be easy for Nemechek to beat Larson, Hamlin and Busch, but he has a major incentive to do so. The Xfinity Series regular-season championship is yet to be decided. Austin Hill leads with 919 points, putting him slightly ahead of Justin Allgaier (892) and Nemechek (891). Although Nemechek has the most wins of either driver, he won't benefit as much from regular-season playoff points if he can't pass those two drivers before the playoffs begin. Because Nemechek has run so well here in the past, and because he isn't dipping down into a series he only runs on occasion, his outright odds of 9-1 (10%) at Caesars are simply too short.
If you're not fully sold on Nemechek's talent, take a look at his stats here in other series. He ran four Truck Series races here in the No. 4 Toyota with Kyle Busch Motorsports and led the most or second-most laps in each event. He finished eighth, second and first in those events. He made three starts in the Cup Series here for Front Row Motorsports as well, recording a top-10 finish in one of those events. Let's back Nemechek to win outright and record a top-5 finish at odds of +150 (40%) via Bet365.
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Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: John Hunter Nemechek +900 for 0.07 Units at Caesars
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: John Hunter Nemechek T5 +150 for 0.43 Units at Bet365
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