The Formula 1 season kicks off this week with the Bahrain Grand Prix, and DraftKings has odds on Sunday’s race. Max Verstappen is the class of the field, but there may be some value further down the grid. Let’s take a first look at the Bahrain Grand Prix odds and see where the leverage spots are for Formula 1 betting picks.
Formula 1 Race Odds: Bahrain Grand Prix First Look
To no one’s surprise, Verstappen is the favorite across the board and the only driver not getting plus money to win. He is the two-time defending world champion and is coming off perhaps the most dominant season in history, so he figures to be the heavy favorite for at least the first few races — and likely longer unless someone else steps up.
That said, last year it took Verstappen a few races to get fully out in front of the rest of the field. Charles Leclerc took two of the first three races and had both himself and Ferrari looking like legitimate competitors for Verstappen and Red Bull. But then Red Bull then took the next six races (with Verstappen winning five of them) and basically put both the Drivers and Constructors Championships out of reach.
The point is that the early races can be a bit wild. Verstappen did not win the first race of the season in either of the last two championship-winning years, and he produced only the 11th-fastest lap during all of Bahrain testing. That said, he did have the fastest lap on the first test day and the second fastest on Day 2. His teammate Sergio Perez came away with the fastest lap, followed by Lewis Hamilton, Valtteri Bottas, Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, in that order.
The odds for the Bahrain Grand Prix reflect general public sentiment for the season on the whole. Verstappen is the easy choice, Leclerc the most obvious challenger, then Hamilton the sentimental pick at No. 3 as he goes for his record eighth world title. Sainz at No. 4 only has one race win in his career but is a reliable podium contender as long as he finishes races — he tied for fourth in podiums with nine despite a grid-high six DNFs in 2022. And then there is Perez, the oft-forgotten but wildly competitive Red Bull No. 2 driver who was inches away from finishing second in the drivers standings last season.
What We Know From 2022 and Bahrain Testing
2022 in Bahrain was a Ferrari showcase, with Leclerc and Sainz going P1 and P2. Mercedes drivers Hamilton and George Russell took third and fourth, while Perez and Verstappen both had to retire with no points. Other finishes of note were both Alfa Romeos (Bottas and Zhou Guanyu) and both Alpines (Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso) finishing in the top 10, and Kevin Magnussen placed fifth in a Haas — the best finish Haas had all season.
Alonso has now jumped over to Aston Martin, a team that is getting a lot of buzz during testing. And though Aston Martin was comfortably behind Alpine in 2022, Alonso is seventh in the Bahrain outright odds, suggesting the public is buying in on the hype. Keep in mind that, though his teammate Lance Stroll is 10th right now, there is a good chance he is not going to race due to injury and Felipe Drugovich will race in his stead. Drugovich is currently +30000 to win and has no odds on a top 6 or top 10.
Alpine has not gotten much love from Vegas despite some excitement when Pierre Gasly signed with them for this season. Gasly is just -110 to finish in the points, while Ocon is slightly better at -150. And if Will Buxton is to be respected as a reliable judge of performance, Alpine looked middling in testing.
The big takeaway from testing, however, seems to be McLaren’s underperformance. As such, Lando Norris is plus money to finish in the points, which would have been unfathomable prior to last week. Norris is arguably a top 5 driver on the grid — taking car quality into consideration — and if the car is so poor that it is dropping him this far in the odds, that is a bad sign.
Where is the Value in the Bahrain Grand Prix Odds?
There is little value in going after Verstappen in any market. It is unwise to ever take a driver at less than plus money to win, and Verstappen has proven that, despite his dominance, he is far from a lock to lead the field in the first race of the season.
Instead, look to either of the Ferraris and Perez for shorter odds, with Sainz being the slightly preferable value to Leclerc as an outright winner at +1000 compared to Leclerc’s +275. Perez at +1200 also looks strong given he drove faster than anyone during testing.
Norris at plus money to finish in the points is always going to be appealing, even if McLaren’s car is underperforming. Then Gasly and Ocon to finish top 6 have some strong value since they have proven to finish strong when things break right. Gasly gets the nod between the two since he may be looking to show out for his new team. Those two are somewhat longshots as plus-money top-6 plays, but Alonso at -225 is just too much of a reach for an Aston Martin, at least until that team shows consistency.
Bahrain Grand Prix Best Value Bets: Carlos Sainz Outright (+1000), Pierre Gasly Top 6 (+550) Lando Norris Top 10 (+110)
