NASCAR Cup Series Bets: AdventHealth 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Kansas (2024)

NASCAR Kansas Outright Odds

AdventHealth 400 Race Preview

In the NextGen Era, the one constant at Kansas has been Toyota’s dominance. The four Kansas winners over the last two years are Kurt Busch, Bubba Wallace, Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick, all of whom were piloting Toyotas a the time — and three of whom were behind the wheel of the 23XI Racing No. 45 car.

But is Toyota’s dominance at Kansas noise, and will the new noses for Ford and Toyota make an impact? The answer to the first question is a flat no — the Toyota driver who went on to win the race in each of the four events had also recorded a top-two driver rating. In each event, two of the three top drivers by driver rating were behind the wheel of a Toyota.

The only asterisk worth adding to Toyota’s dominant run at Kansas is the consistency with which Hendrick Motorsports has shown speed. Last year, Kyle Larson led the most laps in both Kansas races. In the fall 2022 race, Alex Bowman did so. The Toyotas had enough speed to take over each race late, but they weren’t quite as dominant as their four-race winning streak suggests.

It’s also worth noting that Kansas, a smooth, high-speed intermediate track, compares most favorably to Michigan and Las Vegas, tracks that Toyotas haven’t dominated. Both Las Vegas races last year and the one this year were won by Hendrick Motorsports. Michigan’s 2022 and 2023 races were both won by Fords. Still, a Toyota driver finished second in all but one of those events.

We’ve had two events on smooth, high-speed intermediates this season — the very comparable Las Vegas and the less comparable Texas. In Vegas, Toyota drivers accounted for four of the top-six best average green flag speeds. In Texas, Toyota drivers accounted for just two of the top six but controlled first and second. Driver rating paints a similar picture — Toyota drivers scored four of the top-six spots in Vegas and three in Texas.

So while it’s no sure thing that a Toyota driver will take the checkered flag first on Sunday, with their manufacturer odds set to only -110 (52.4%), I’m willing to back them. The only drivers I’m concerned about are Larson (+350), the betting favorite for this event, and William Byron (+900), who isn’t far behind.

A bet on Toyota gets us exposure to Denny Hamlin (+450), Tyler Reddick (+700), Martin Truex Jr. (+850), Ty Gibbs (+1000), Christopher Bell (+1100) and Bubba Wallace (+1100), which gets us to a combined implied probability of 66.9% before the two longshots in John Hunter Nemechek (+40000) and Corey Heim (+15000). The manufacturer markets obviously have a lower hold than the outright market does, but seeing that 14.5% split is encouraging.