The NASCAR Cup Series will run another superspeedway race this weekend, this time from the high banks of Atlanta Motor Speedway. William Byron, who just won the Daytona 500, also won the last race at Atlanta — but he received some significant help from Mother Nature. Joey Logano won the spring race here last season. Anyway, let’s dive into the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds for Atlanta as we make our picks and predictions for the 2024 Ambetter Health 400.
Before we discuss Atlanta, here’s the recap from last week. It was almost a very profitable Daytona 500, but the keyword there is almost. We had Ford (+140) leading the race late, Brad Keselowski (+1100) looking very live to win and David Ragan (+8000) running P2 and looking likely to cash our +290 T10 ticket. But then Alex Bowman and William Byron wrecked the field, and that was that. YouTube viewers and Discord members at least cashed a +275 T10 ticket for John Hunter Nemechek.
Are you looking for more NASCAR sports betting content? We’ve got you covered. Check out the rest of our articles, including my 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season preview and my NASCAR betting guide, all of which should help you make the best NASCAR Cup Series bet for the Ambetter Health 400 in Atlanta.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Ambetter Health 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Atlanta (2024)
Ambetter Health 400 Odds & Predictions
| Driver | Outright Odds | Top 5 Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +1000 | +125 |
| Joey Logano | +1000 | +125 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1100 | +140 |
| Christopher Bell | +1100 | +140 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1100 | +140 |
| William Byron | +1200 | +150 |
| Chase Elliott | +1200 | +150 |
| Kyle Larson | +1400 | +180 |
| Kyle Busch | +1400 | +180 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1600 | +200 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1800 | +225 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2000 | +250 |
| Ross Chastain | +2000 | +250 |
| Erik Jones | +2200 | +275 |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 | +300 |
| Austin Cindric | +2500 | +300 |
| Alex Bowman | +2500 | +300 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2800 | +350 |
| Daniel Suarez | +3000 | +380 |
Favorites | NASCAR Cup Series
I’m writing this article before qualifying, so if the odds board looks different by the time you’re reading this story, that’s why — you can find the current odds here. As of Wednesday, Joey Logano (+1000) and Denny Hamlin (+1000) were the favorites at DraftKings,
Following them closely were Ryan Blaney (+1100), Christopher Bell (+1100), Brad Keselowski (+1100), William Byron (+1200) and Chase Elliott (+1200). All have a great chance of winning.
Notably, BetMGM and FanDuel had very different opening odds boards. At BetMGM, Logano (+1000) was tied with Blaney (+1000) and Keselowski (+1000) at the top with Hamlin (+1100) trailing.
At FanDuel, Hamlin (+850) led, followed by Blaney (+1000), Elliott (+1000) and Kyle Larson (+1000). Logano (+1200) and Keselowski (+1200) were further down the board.
Contenders | NASCAR Cup Series
Drivers just outside of that +1000-to-+1200 range at DraftKings and most other spots include Larson (+1400), Kyle Busch (+1400), Martin Truex Jr. (+1700), Bubba Wallace (+1800), Tyler Reddick (+2000) and Ross Chastain (+2200).
Busch is coming off a solid Daytona 500 performance in which he suffered numerous setbacks but almost always found his way back to the front. He recorded the best driver rating in the event (101.5). However, Busch didn’t flash at this track last season.
The Toyotas look much better in the draft this year than last. Three of the top-five drivers by driver rating at Daytona were piloting Toyotas: Bell, Reddick and Wallace. Truex (7th) and Hamlin (9th) weren’t far behind, either.
Chastain had a shot to win the Daytona 500 this year, but he came up just short in a last-lap crash caused by an ill-executed push to Austin Cindric from Corey Lajoie.
Long Shots | NASCAR Cup Series
As a superspeedway, Atlanta has the potential to produce surprise winners. But in the four races run on the track’s repaved and reconfigured surface, it’s been the usual suspects in victory lane: William Byron (2x), Chase Elliott and Joey Logano. That said, Corey Lajoie (+4000) nearly won the summer race here in 2022, and Aric Almirola was in the mix for the win in both of last year’s Atlanta races. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+4000) has been near the front here often as well.
If Ford can replicate its strong performance in qualifying at the Daytona 500 and get multiple cars up at the front here, which the manufacturer accomplished last year — Ford drivers controlled first through eighth here in the spring and first through sixth in the summer — we could see a long shot like Almirola have value.
Ford drivers that intrigue me as long shot bets included Chase Briscoe (+5000), whose odds are a bit too long, and Justin Haley (+10000), who showed good speed before suffering a mechanical failure at Daytona. He scored an eighth-place finish here for Kaulig Racing last summer to go with the sixth-best driver rating.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Ambetter Health 400 Picks & Predictions | Atlanta
Ambetter Health 400 Bet #1: Back the Blue Ovals in Atlanta | NASCAR Cup Series
Ah sh#t, here we go again. Yes, we’re backing the Blue Ovals to win another superspeedway race outright. Sure, they don’t look as dominant at these tracks as they did last season, and yes, Clint Bowyer was probably right about the new noses acting as an equalizer at superspeedways. Ford still fielded the fastest car (Joey Logano) and led the most laps (86/200). That makes it seven superspeedway races in a row where a Ford driver has led the most laps.
The books are overreacting to the newfound equality between the manufacturers at superspeedway tracks. Ford is now trading at +185 (35.1%) on Caesars. Let’s do some math. For one, Fords compose 37.8% of the field. For another, we only need their top six drivers’ outright odds (using the prices at Caesars) to exceed that implied probability: Logano (9.5%), Keselowski (8.3%), Blaney (8.3%), Chris Buescher (4.4%), Austin Cindric (3.4%) and Michael McDowell (2.9%), all of whom have won at a superspeedway since 2021.
Ambetter Health 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Ford Winning Manufacturer +185 at Caesars
Ambetter Health 400 Bet #2: Joey Logano Gets Revenge | NASCAR Cup Series
Joey Logano had the best car at Daytona last weekend. He crashed out, but his car wasn’t destroyed. There’s a non-zero chance we see the same chassis in use this weekend. That chassis was meaningfully faster than the rest of the field without the draft, which may give Logano a leg up in qualifying. He may still have one even if Team Penske has to give him another one to run — if they can build a car as fast as the No. 22 was last week, they can probably build another.
Logano made the second round of qualifying in every superspeedway event last year save the summer race at Daytona. He won the pole for last year’s Atlanta race and proceeded to lead 140 laps before winning it all. Logano recorded an average starting position of 5.3 at superspeedway races last season, which is important in Atlanta, as two of the four events have been won by the pole-sitter. The last three also saw the pole-sitter lead the most laps. I will likely add whoever ends up starting P1 to my card if they aren’t already on it.
Ambetter Health 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Joey Logano +1200 at FanDuel
Ambetter Health 400 Bet #3: Briscoe & Burton Run Well | NASCAR Cup Series
We’re rounding out the card with some real long-shot bets. I have several underdogs on my card this week (four), but you’ll have to find the others on YouTube or Discord. Let’s start with the one who owns the shortest odds, Chase Briscoe. At +6000 on Hard Rock but +5000 in most spots and +4000 on BetMGM, we’re getting a very good deal. He is also +260 (27.4%) to score a top-10 finish at Caesars but will cost you +200 at DraftKings.
Like the rest of the Ford camp, Briscoe brought speed to Atlanta last year. He started eighth in the spring and third in the summer but ultimately finished both races mired back in the 20s. However, his teammate, Almirola, had enough speed to lead 17 laps in the spring and 46 in the summer. Briscoe is a solid superspeedway driver and piloted his No. 14 Ford to one top-10 and three top-15s in six superspeedway events last year. He had tallied three top-10s and four top-15s the year prior.
Next up is Harrison Burton, who is trading at 100-1 to win at FanDuel and +350 (22.2%) to score a top-10 at Caesars. Keep in mind that with a 37-car field, the raw odds of anyone scoring a top-10 result are 27%. The books just believe Burton is that much worse than the field. In the Xfinity Series, Burton was decent at superspeedways, tallying three top-5s and five top-10s in eight starts.
The youngster has struggled in the Cup Series, and he kicked things off this year by crashing out of the Daytona 500 thanks to John Hunter Nemechek and Brad Keselowski. However, Burton showed good speed in qualifying for the event, recording the 10th-fastest lap. He also qualified a career-best fifth in Atlanta for last summer’s race. Burton led laps in three superspeedway events last year before getting knocked out in wrecks, scoring no top-10s and no top-15s. He led laps in two superspeedway events in 2022 and scored one top-10, which came right here in Atlanta.
Ambetter Health 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Chase Briscoe +6000 at Hard Rock
Ambetter Health 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Chase Briscoe T10 +260 at Caesars
Ambetter Health 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Harrison Burton +10000 at FanDuel
Ambetter Health 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Harrison Burton +350 at Caesars
