The 65th Daytona 500 will get underway on Monday at 4 p.m. ET, and this year’s Great American Race features a stacked entry list as the NASCAR Cup Series kicks off the 2024 season. Who will win the sport’s most prestigious event and secure a playoff bid? Let’s dive into the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds as we make our picks and predictions for the 2024 Daytona 500.
Looking for more NASCAR sports betting content? Check out the rest of our articles, including my 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season preview and my NASCAR betting guide.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Daytona 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Daytona 500 Odds & Predictions
| Driver | Outright Odds | Top 5 Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | +1000 | +125 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1000 | +125 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1100 | +135 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 | +150 |
| Kyle Larson | +1200 | +150 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 | +150 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 | +175 |
| Chris Buescher | +1600 | +200 |
| William Byron | +1800 | +225 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1800 | +225 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +2200 | +275 |
| Erik Jones | +2500 | +300 |
| Christopher Bell | +2500 | +300 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2800 | +350 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2800 | +350 |
| Ross Chastain | +2800 | +350 |
| Alex Bowman | +2800 | +350 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +3000 | +350 |
| Austin Dillon | +3000 | +350 |
| Austin Cindric | +3000 | +350 |
Favorites | NASCAR Cup Series
As any NASCAR fan and bettor should know, the superspeedway races like the Daytona 500 are anyone’s game. As such, the drivers are pretty close together in terms of outright odds. However, three “favorites” own odds shorter than +1200: Kyle Busch (+1000), Denny Hamlin (+1000) and Brad Keselowski (+1100).
Busch and Keselowski have won at Daytona before, but neither has won the Daytona 500. Busch won the summer race in 2008; Keselowski won the summer race in 2016. Both should compete for the win on Monday, but Keselowski dominated some superspeedway events last year. He even led the most laps here last season.
Hamlin, one of NASCAR’s new Netflix stars, is a three-time Daytona winner and clocks in at odds of +1000. However, with Toyota’s historic struggles at superspeedways and lack of speed in qualifying, I’m passing on him at such short of a price.
Contenders | NASCAR Cup Series
Everyone can contend at a track like Daytona, but the oddsmakers have priced only seven more drivers with odds shorter than +2000: Penske teammates Ryan Blaney (+1200) and Joey Logano (+1200); Henrick teammates Kyle Larson (+1200), Chase Elliott (+1400) and William Byron (+1800); Chris Buescher (+1600), who led the second-most laps here last year; and Bubba Wallace +1800).
Team Penske, along with the rest of the Ford camp, looked great at superspeedways last season. Logano will even start on the pole for Monday’s race. He’ll do so alongside another Ford driver (and former Daytona 500 winner), Michael McDowell (+3500). With the speed the Ford camp flashed in qualifying, it’s easy to get excited about their odds. Still, they’ll be hoping for the new Dark Horse nose to work well in the draft.
The Hendrick drivers, Larson, Elliott, Byron and Alex Bowman (+2800) are the next notable group of names, but it’s worth noting that they looked slower than they usually do. Hendrick had won the last nine Daytona 500 poles but failed to even get a driver on the front row for this year’s race. The team’s dominance in qualifying hasn’t exactly translated to success in the race, either — none of their active drivers have won the Daytona 500.
Long Shots | NASCAR Cup Series
Superspeedway races are one of the best events for long shots to win. We saw Michael McDowell do so in 2021 at +6600. Last year, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won at +3000. The year before, Austin Cindric won at +3000. So if you’re looking for the best Daytona 500 bets, you’ll have to scroll down the odds board.
Austin Dillon (+3000), another one-time Daytona 500 winner, has intriguing value after flashing strong speed in qualifying. Before last season, Dillon was known as one of the best drivers at keeping his car clean on superspeedways — but he failed to score even a top-20 finish after crashing out in four of the six events, including both Daytona races.
Further down the board, Corey Lajoie (+4500) has shown serious talent at superspeedways in the recent past, competing for wins until late both here and at Atlanta. But the best value bet on the board might be part-time driver David Ragan (+7000), a two-time superspeedway winner who nearly won the Daytona 500 in 2011 until a late-race penalty cost him a shot at the win. He’ll pilot the No. 60 for RFK Racing this weekend.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Daytona 500 Picks & Predictions
Daytona 500 Bet #1: Back the Blue Ovals
We saw the Fords dominate superspeedways last season. While they didn’t win every event, they certainly had the fastest cars in almost all of them. The manufacturer went 3-for-6 but fielded the car that led the most laps in every event.
The Fords may not have the same advantage in the draft this season due to the new front end, but the early returns from qualifying are encouraging on the aerodynamic front. Joey Logano ran a 49.465-second lap to secure the pole, better than what Alex Bowman ran in 2023 (49.536) and what Kyle Larson ran in 2022 (49.680).
Qualifying speed doesn’t mean everything, but if it’s coupled with an advantage in the draft that we’ve seen Ford have at superspeedways in recent years, it means a ton. Further, Logano’s lap was almost a tenth of a second faster than the next-best car, also a Ford. Chevrolet’s best time (49.550) and Toyota’s best time (50.177) reveal how much of a leg up Ford may have in raw speed.
Daytona 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Ford Winning Manufacturer +140 at BetMGM
Daytona 500 Bet #2: Big Night for RFK Racing
Sure, Team Penske has shown more raw speed so far at Daytona than the other top Ford team, RFK Racing, but as far as individual outrights and props go, I’m backing them. RFK Racing led the most laps in this event last year but came up short. Chris Buescher made up for it somewhat by winning the summer event, but as all NASCAR fans know, the Daytona 500 means a lot more.
With RFK Racing adding David Ragan for this event, they have a stable of three drivers who have won on the high banks of Daytona before, but all of them have come up short in the Great American Race. Each of them has something to prove — Keselowski, that he can win as a team owner; Buescher, that he can compete for a championship; and Ragan, that he can get the job done after coming oh-so-close in 2011.
Even if Ragan can’t get to Victory Lane, I trust him to keep his No. 60 Ford clean. Most books have him trading at odds of +250 to score a top-10 result, but he clocks in at a lengthy +290 on FanDuel. Ragan has a whopping eight top-10s at Daytona in 30 starts, good for a win rate of 26.7%, beating the implied odds of 25.4% at FanDuel. Further, has scored a top-10 in three of his last four starts here, which he accomplished in far less competitive equipment.
Daytona 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Brad Keselowski +1100 at BetMGM
Daytona 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Chris Buescher +1600 at BetMGM
Daytona 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: David Ragan +7000 at FanDuel
Daytona 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: David Ragan T10 +290 at FanDuel
