Christopher Bell dominantly won at Phoenix despite having to work his way up through the field multiple times, cashing a +1200 outright ticket for us in the process. Can I stay hot and pick another winner at Bristol? I’m optimistic, so let’s dive into the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds for Bristol as we make our picks and predictions for the 2024 Food City 500.
Last week was a profitable one for us: aside from our +1200 outright ticket, we also cashed a -102 ticket for Bell to beat Kyle Busch. The odds for those bets closed at +600 and -200, respectively, which is why you should be betting on NASCAR early. We also cashed a +350 ticket for Michael McDowell to get a top-10.
Are you looking for more NASCAR sports betting content? We’ve got you covered. Check out the rest of our articles, including my 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season preview and my NASCAR betting guide, all of which should help you make the best NASCAR Cup Series bet for the Food City 500 in Bristol.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Food City 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Bristol (2024)
NASCAR Bristol Odds & Predictions
| Driver | Outright Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +450 |
| Denny Hamlin | +500 |
| Christopher Bell | +550 |
| William Byron | +1100 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1100 |
| Chris Buescher | +1100 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1300 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1300 |
| Ross Chastain | +1800 |
| Joey Logano | +1800 |
| Chase Elliott | +2000 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +2000 |
Favorites | Food City 500 Odds
Kyle Larson (+450), Denny Hamlin (+500) and Christopher Bell (+550) are in a tier of their own this week. Hamlin has three wins here to Larson’s one. Both have had recent success here, too — Hamlin won last year’s Bristol race while Larson won in 2021.
Bell has yet to win here, but he led 150-plus laps in his last two starts here, coming up just short both times. Unfortunately for us, his win at Phoenix likely tightened up the odds significantly, depriving us of another chance to cash a high-value ticket.
Contenders | Food City 500 Odds
After Bell, there is a massive drop-off before we find seven drivers with odds between +1100 and +1300. These include a few Bristol legends, like Kyle Busch (+1200) with eight wins and Brad Keselowski (+1200) with three.
But while Busch and Keselowski have been dominant here in the past, it’s been a while. Busch hasn’t won here since 2019, and he finished 20th here last year in his first race with RCR. Keselowski last won here in 2020. While he has put together good runs in his new No. 6 Ford, he is still looking for that first win in it.
Several drivers without wins at Bristol fall into this tier, too — William Byron (+1100), Ryan Blaney (+1100), Tyler Reddick (+1300) and Ty Gibbs (+1300) are all searching for their first wins here; Gibbs is still searching for his first win in the Cup Series, too.
Chris Buescher (+1200) rounds out the contender tier. Buescher cashed us a +12500 outright ticket here in 2022, and it’s quite impressive to see the progress he has made in his Cup Series career since then. He’ll never be +12500 again.
Long Shots | Food City 500 Odds
Long-shot winners are rare at Bristol. Aside from Buescher’s stunning win here in 2022, we just haven’t seen underfunded teams get wins. Matt DiBenedetto almost got the job done here in 2019 but came up just short, losing to Hamlin.
But a look down the odds board does reveal some guys with value. Chase Elliott (+2000), once nicknamed the King of Concrete, and Joey Logano (+1800), a one-time Bristol winner, should probably both be priced between +1100 to +1300.
As far as actual long-shot drivers go, Corey Lajoie (+15000) could surprise some people. He led 48 laps here last season and scored a runner-up finish in Stage 2 before getting involved in an accident. His teammate, Carson Hocevar, (+8000) came up just short of a top-10 in his first-ever Cup Series start here.
Other notable drivers with long odds include Michael McDowell (+6000), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+10000) and Austin Cindric (+15000). All three have won a Cup Series race since 2022, but none have done so at Bristol. None have won here in the Xfinity Series, either, but Cindric memorably came about as close as anyone can in 2021.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Food City 500 Picks & Predictions | Bristol
Food City 500 Bet #1: Chase Elliott is BACK | NASCAR Cup Series
Few drivers have struggled as much in the NextGen Era as Chase Elliott. He went from winning a championship in 2020 to missing the playoffs in 2023. But Elliott’s five-win season in 2022 suggests that the car isn’t the issue — something else is going on with him. I suspect that it’s a combination of self-doubt and bad luck.
Elliott’s 2023 season was an absolute nightmare. He broke his leg and missed several races, he intentionally wrecked Denny Hamlin and got suspended for another race, and he ultimately finished 17th in points. Oh, and he didn’t win once. The 2024 season has been somewhat similar, as he is also yet to win, let alone score a top-10 finish.
But we’re betting on Chase Elliott to turn things around this week, and I’m comfortable doing so because of what we saw in Phoenix. Sure, he finished 19th, but he also qualified a season-best third and was running in the top-3 for a considerable portion of the day. He also ended the race ranked 10th in green-flag speed among drivers who at least finished a stage.
While Elliott has yet to win at Bristol in the Cup Series, he used to dominate on concrete. He has two wins at Dover, which is Bristol’s best comparator track, along with wins at both Nashville and Martinsville. Elliott has four top-5s and seven top-10s across 13 Cup Series starts at Bristol. He should not be +2000 to win, +300 to score a top-5 or +100 to get a top-10, but he is at Caesars, so we pounce.
Food City 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Chase Elliott +2000 at Caesars
Food City 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Chase Elliott T5 +300 at Caesars
Food City 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Chase Elliott T10 +100 at Caesars
Food City 500 Bet #2: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Gets a T10 | NASCAR Cup Series
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished 10th at Bristol last season in his underfunded No. 47 Chevrolet, but he is +420 at Caesars to accomplish the same thing this year. That’s a little disrespectful. Stenhouse racked up nine top-10s in this car last year, good for a hit rate of 25%, worse than the implied odds of this line (19.3%). He has one this year, too, which puts him on track to meet that hit rate again.
Stenhouse is no stranger to the front in Bristol. Over 19 starts, he has four top-5s and seven top-10s, including a pair of runner-up finishes. Although the No. 47 Chevrolet is worse than the No. 17 Ford he used to drive, it’s not like those Roush cars were all that great, either — he was still elevating mediocre equipment when he racked up all those top-10s here.
Further, Stenhouse has been good on concrete lately. His recent Bristol results are a bit skewed by accidents in two of his last four races here, but when we factor in his stats on other banked concrete tracks (Dover and Nashville), it’s clear that he’s still pretty good on these tracks. Since 2021, Stenhouse has recorded one top-5 and three top-10s over a nine-race sample. That means we’re beating both his recent top-10 rate on concrete (33%) and his top-10 rate over the last two seasons (25%) with this bet.
Food City 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. T10 +420 at Caesars
