The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the first true intermediate event of the year. After consecutive superspeedway events, one of which produced the closest finish in Cup Series history, fans should expect less pack racing but still plenty of passing. This also marks the debut of the new Ford and Toyota noses on intermediate tracks. Let’s dive into the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds for Las Vegas as we make our picks and predictions for the 2024 Pennzoil 400.
To recap last week, well, it was ugly. We had several tickets that were looking great, including Joey Logano to win at 12-1 (he dropped as low as 7-1 after qualifying P2 before suffering a pre-race penalty), Todd Gilliland to win at 100-1 and score a top-10 at +350 (Gilliland led the most laps) and Ford to win at +185 (they closed at +130) — but alas, it was not to be. Gilliland wasn’t written up in the article, only Discord members got to sweat that one.
Are you looking for more NASCAR sports betting content? We’ve got you covered. Check out the rest of our articles, including my 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season preview and my NASCAR betting guide, all of which should help you make the best NASCAR Cup Series bet for the Pennzoil 400 in Las Vegas.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Pennzoil 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Phoenix (2024)
Pennzoil 400 Odds & Predictions
| Driver | Outright Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +400 |
| William Byron | +850 |
| Denny Hamlin | +850 |
| Ryan Blaney | +900 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1000 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1000 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 |
| Ross Chastain | +1500 |
| Joey Logano | +1500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1800 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1900 |
| Chris Buescher | +2200 |
| Alex Bowman | +2200 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2800 |
| Erik Jones | +4500 |
| Daniel Suarez | +6500 |
Favorites | NASCAR Cup Series
It’s Kyle Larson (+400) and then everyone else in Las Vegas this weekend. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet is great, sure, with two wins in his last six starts here, including the race here last October, but no competent NASCAR capper can advise betting on Larson at such a short price.
Four other drivers own odds shorter than +1000: his teammate, William Byron (+850), Denny Hamlin (+850), Ryan Blaney (+900) and Christopher Bell (+900). Those four drivers have combined for two total career wins here, with only Byron and Hamlin having found Victory Lane.
Blaney and Bell, the two drivers who haven’t won in Vegas yet, have come close. Bell finished P2 after starting on the pole here last October. Blaney was on track to win in October 2022 before a late-race spin relegated him to P28.
Contenders | NASCAR Cup Series
The +1000-to-+1500 range features a few notable names. Leading off are a pair of Toyota drivers, Tyler Reddick (+1000) and Martin Truex Jr. (+1000). Truex has won here twice but not since 2019. Reddick hasn’t won here in the Cup Series but won here once in Xfinity.
Kyle Busch (+1200) and Chase Elliott (+1400) are the next men up. The two Chevrolet drivers haven’t done much here lately. Busch last won at his home track in 2009 but has five top-5 finishes in his last six starts. Elliott is yet to win here. His last top-5 in Vegas came in 2021.
The last members of this tier are Joey Logano (+1500) and Ross Chastain (+1500). Chastain won at Nashville, a rough intermediate, last year. He was dominant here in 2022, scoring two top-3s and leading the most laps in both events, before failing to lead once here last season.
Logano is a three-time winner at Vegas but has been held back by Ford’s struggles at intermediates lately. His last trip to Victory Lane in Vegas came in 2022, which was also his only top-10 here in his last four starts.
Long Shots | NASCAR Cup Series
The next man on the board, Brad Keselowski (+1800) isn’t that much of a long shot, but considering he hasn’t won since 2021, he feels like one. Keselowski is a three-time Las Vegas winner and would certainly own shorter odds but for Ford’s awful performance on intermediates last season.
Drivers’ odds get long fast this week. After Keselowski and Bubba Wallace (+1900), only five drivers own odds shorter than +10000. Ty Gibbs (+2800) has a pretty short price for a driver yet to win a Cup Series race. Last week’s polesitter, Michael McDowell (+10000), and his teammate who led the most laps, Todd Gilliland (+25000), are some examples.
The condensed odds board for Vegas makes sense. Few surprise wins have happened here other than Kurt Busch’s victory in 2020, and it’s not like Busch, a former Cup Series champion, was that much of a surprise winner. Only one past Vegas winner, Alex Bowman (+2200), owns odds longer than +2000.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Pennzoil 400 Picks & Predictions | Las Vegas
Pennzoil 400 Bet #1: Fords Recover on Intermediates | NASCAR Cup Series
Look, I know I’ve missed our last two manufacturer bets by riding with the Fords, but they did lead the most laps in both events, and Ryan Blaney was fractions of a second from winning at the end in Atlanta. I’m ready to get hurt again. Let’s back the Blue Ovals to score their first win of the year on an intermediate.
With every new season comes a list of changes, but none are more important than the new noses for Ford and Toyota. Toyota’s flatter nose was a play to improve in the draft, and it worked. Ford’s new elevated fenders reveal the manufacturer’s focus on improving performance at intermediates, and I suspect the adjustments will prove successful this weekend.
Ford is trading at +300 on DraftKings to win at Las Vegas. Although Chevrolets and Toyotas have combined to win five of the last six races here, the two winningest drivers in Vegas entered in the 2024 Pennzoil 400 drive Fords. Their success is recent, too — Brad Keselowski went to Victory Lane in 2016, 2018 and 2020; Joey Logano did so in 2019, 2020 and 2022.
Ambetter Health 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Ford Winning Manufacturer +300 at DraftKings
Pennzoil 400 Bet #2: RFK Racing Shows Out | NASCAR Cup Series
The intermediates were tough for Ford drivers last season, but it was RFK Racing, not Team Penske or Stewart-Haas Racing, that looked the best on them. Across the seven events on smooth intermediates, RFK Racing scored one win, two top-5s and five top-10s.
RFK Racing improved on smooth intermediates as the season progressed, too — from the August race in Michigan onward, the team had an average finish of 8.5 across four events. Either Brad Keselowski or Chris Buescher led at least one lap in each event. Keselowski led the third-most laps at Vegas and the fourth-most at Kansas. Buescher led the most at Michigan.
Will RFK Racing’s momentum on smooth intermediates continue into this season? I’m optimistic, and the new nose could help be just what they need to get over the top a bit more consistently. I’m backing the team to win outright at odds of +1200 on Caesars along with both drivers to score a top-10 result.
Pennzoil 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: RFK Racing Winning Team +1200 at Caesars
Pennzoil 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Brad Keselowski T10 -125 at Caesars
Pennzoil 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Chris Buescher T10 +110 at Caesars
