Last weekend’s race at the Circuit of the Americas was frustrating — we got plenty of exposure to Michael McDowell, but he suffered problems early. Those who tailed the full card with Chris Buescher T10 got bailed out to a degree, but I’m looking to bounce back after a shaky week. The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond for the 2024 Toyota Owners 400 this Sunday. Let’s dive into the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds for Richmond as we make our picks and predictions for the 2024 Toyota Owners 400.
Are you looking for more NASCAR sports betting content? We’ve got you covered. Check out the rest of our articles, including my 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season preview and my NASCAR betting guide, all of which should help you make the best NASCAR Cup Series betting picks and predictions for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Toyota Owners 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Richmond (2024)
NASCAR Richmond Odds & Predictions
| Driver | Outright Odds |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +425 |
| Christopher Bell | +425 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +600 |
| Ty Gibbs | +850 |
| Kyle Larson | +900 |
| William Byron | +1100 |
| Chris Buescher | +1100 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1500 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1500 |
| Kyle Busch | +1500 |
| Chase Elliott | +1700 |
| Ross Chastain | +2000 |
| Joey Logano | +2000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +3500 |
Tier 1 | Toyota Owners 400 Odds
It’s Joe Gibbs Racing and then everyone else for this weekend’s race at Richmond. Denny Hamlin (+425) and Christopher Bell (+425) sit atop the odds board and are followed closely by their teammates, Martin Truex Jr. (+600) and Ty Gibbs (+850).
Hamlin is the second-winningest active driver at Richmond (4), edging out Truex (3). Neither Bell nor Gibbs have found victory lane here in the Cup Series, but both did so in the Xfinity Series — Bell won in three of his five starts here while Gibbs won in one of his two.
Tier 2 | Toyota Owners 400 Odds
Eight drivers clock in with odds between +900 and +2000, including the winningest active driver here, Kyle Busch (+1500). Still, with Busch no longer driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, it’s hard to get excited about his odds of winning this race.
Two Hendrick Motorsports drivers fit into this range, Kyle Larson (+900) and William Byron (+1100). Larson (2) is another driver with multiple wins at Richmond while Byron, the first driver with multiple wins this season, has yet to win at this track.
The RFK Racing teammates of Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski both find themselves with short odds after Buescher’s surprising win here last summer. Buescher (1) and Keselowski (2) are both past winners at this track.
Wrapping up this tier are Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney, both of whom are looking for their first wins at Richmond. Reddick led 81 laps from the pole in last summer’s Richmond race before finishing a disappointing 16th. Blaney arguably should have won the 2022 race here after led the most laps.
Tier 3 & Below | Toyota Owners 400 Odds
Drivers with odds longer than +1500 include Chase Elliott (+1700), who looks increasingly like the third wheel on his team behind Byron and Larson, and Joey Logano (+2000), who is off to an absolutely brutal start to the year. Logano (2) has won here multiple times, although one of his wins was encumbered and both came back in the mid-to-late 2010s.
Drivers approaching long-shot territory include Josh Berry (+6500), who finished P2 in his first Cup Series start here last season while filling in for Elliott, and Daniel Suarez (+9000), who, despite being a two-time Cup Series winner, has never done much at Richmond.
Michael McDowell (+9000) always deserves a mention — he keeps his No. 34 Ford clean enough at short, flat ovals like Richmond for a contrarian pit-road call to possibly thrust him into winning position. Erik Jones (+10000) and John Hunter Nemechek (+10000) have done well on short, flat ovals in the past and could have value but are likely going to be held back by their Legacy Motor Club equipment.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Toyota Owners 400 Picks & Predictions | Richmond
Toyota Owners 400 Bet #1: 23XI Gets Some Top-10s… and More? | NASCAR Cup Series
Last summer, Tyler Reddick looked to be on pace to win from the pole here in Richmond. He led 81 laps early, winning Stage 1 in the process, before Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher took the race over. Reddick finished Stage 2 in third before finishing the race in 16th due to an ill-timed pit road penalty. Neither Reddick nor his 23XI Racing teammate, Bubba Wallace, have scored a top-10 result at Richmond.
That soundbite — that Reddick and Wallace have yet to score a top-10 at Richmond — corresponds to a serious mispricing for both drivers. Their Toyota teammates at Joe Gibbs Racing, with whom they have a close technical alliance, are the top four drivers on the outright odds board.
The results just don’t support that disparity. We’ve had one race at a comparator short, flat oval so far, the United Rentals 500 at Phoenix, and both JGR and 23XI looked great. JGR won with Christopher Bell, although every driver in their stable led at least 50 laps — Bell actually led the least of all four drivers.
So how did Reddick do? He started P6 — third of the JGR and 23XI drivers — won Stage 1, finished second in Stage 2, led 68 laps and finished P10. He recorded the second-best driver rating (121.8) and the third-fastest average green-flag speed of all drivers who completed at least a stage.
Wallace didn’t do that much — he finished a pedestrian P16 and recorded the 18th-fastest average green-flag speed — but he’ll benefit from having Reddick’s notes this weekend. We’re also getting him at implied odds longer than 40% to score a top-10, which he did three times on short, flat ovals last year.
Toyota Owners 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Tyler Reddick +1500 at BetMGM
Toyota Owners 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Tyler Reddick T10 -120 at Hard Rock
Toyota Owners 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Bubba Wallace T10 +187 at bet365
Toyota Owners 400 Bet #2: Michael McDowell | NASCAR Cup Series
I have this final top-10 pick and one matchup bet on my NASCAR betting card. I’ll probably be adding one more bet after qualifying, too, so if you want to see the full card (and recommended bet sizing), make sure to sign up for OddsShopper Premium. Sales pitch over: Let’s get into this Michael McDowell pick.
We cashed a +350 ticket on McDowell to score a top-10 at Phoenix, another short, flat oval, earlier this season. Some books have adjusted after that solid showing more than others — we can still find him at odds of +325 via FanDuel, which is more than enough value for me.
McDowell is sneaky good on short, flat ovals. Last year, he scored two top-10s and four top-15s across seven starts (I’m counting Phoenix (2x), Richmond (2x), New Hampshire and Martinsville (2x)). He started this year with another top-10 at Phoenix, giving him three top-10s over his last eight races on these tracks, good for a win rate of 37.5% — far better than the implied odds of the +325 (23.5%).
Toyota Owners 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Michael McDowell T10 +325 at FanDuel
