You’ve got to be kidding me. I aggressively bought Fords to win last weekend’s race at Talladega, and even though they led 52.1% of the laps (and owned positions 1-2-3 coming out of the final corner), Michael McDowell just had to throw a bad block on Brad Keselowski that handed Toyota the win. The top-10 ticket for Todd Gilliland softened the blow, but a blow it was. Let’s bounce back as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover for the 2024 Wurth 400 this Sunday. Now, let’s dive right into the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds for Dover as we make our picks and predictions for the 2024 Wurth 400.
Are you looking for more NASCAR sports betting content? We’ve got you covered. Check out the rest of our articles, including my 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season preview and my NASCAR betting guide, all of which should help you make the best NASCAR Cup Series betting picks and predictions for the Wurth 400 at Dover.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Wurth 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Dover (2024)
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Wurth 400 Odds & Race Preview
NASCAR Dover Outright Odds
| Drivers | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +450 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +600 |
| William Byron | +750 |
| Ross Chastain | +750 |
| Denny Hamlin | +750 |
| Christopher Bell | +1000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1100 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1300 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1300 |
| Alex Bowman | +1600 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1900 |
| Kyle Busch | +1900 |
Wurth 400 Race Preview
Dovor Motor Speedway is a one-mile, high-banked, concrete oval. Although it compares somewhat favorably to Bristol Motor Speedway, it’s a half-mile longer, so we can’t lean too much on it. We can also look at Martinsville and Nashville as other concrete tracks, but those are much shorter and longer, respectively.
Sunday’s weather calls for 80-degree temperatures and sunny skies, which should lead to plenty of rubber getting put down on the track’s rough surface. As such, we’re targeting drivers who we know can race well in the high groove like Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick.
The all-time winningest drive at Dover, Jimmie Johnson, is in the field. Although he is an 11-time winner here, he is no longer driving competitive equipment, and he lacks experience in the Gen. 7 car. The next-winningest active drivers are Martin Truex Jr. (4), who won here last year, Kyle Busch (3) and Chase Elliott (2). No other drivers have multiple wins.
Kyle Larson, a one-time Dover winner, clocks in as the betting favorite. He had a fast car here last year but got crashed out by Ross Chastain. Behind Larson are Truex, Chastian, William Byron and Denny Hamlin, the only other drivers with odds shorter than +1000 at DraftKings.
NASCAR Cup Series Bets: Wurth 400 Picks & Predictions | Dover
Wurth 400 Bet #1: Uhh… Give Me Christopher Bell | NASCAR Cup Series
Do you remember what happened at Phoenix earlier in the year? The books were taking action on Christopher Bell at +1200, and we pounced on him to win and finish ahead of Kyle Busch. Bell had the fastest car all day and overcame multiple penalties before ultimately winning the race. He is now trading at +1400 at BetMGM this weekend, and I’m pouncing on him again.
Although Bell hasn’t won at Dover in the Cup Series, he is no stranger to Victory Lane. He won here in the fall of 2018 and the spring of 2019, back when Dover had two dates, and scored a fourth-place finish in his debut.
Bell struggled in his first few Cup Series starts at Dover, finishing outside the top 20 three times, but two of those starts were in the No. 95 for Leavine Family Racing. Since taking over the No. 20 Toyota, he has finished 21st, fourth and sixth here.
Last year, Bell qualified second, led a lap and stuck around the top 10 all day before finishing sixth. He also ranked sixth by average green-flag speed and driver rating (102.4). Those aren’t dominant numbers, but they’re impressive, and he should close at a shorter price if he can replicate his strong run in qualifying of last season.
Bell’s resume on other concrete tracks is similarly good but not great. Since the first race in the Gen. 7 car, he boasts one win, four top-5s and eight top-10s in 12 starts at concrete tracks (including Dover). With him trading at outright odds of +1400 at BetMGM and top-10 odds of -155 at BetMGM, I’m thrilled about the chance to repeat what worked so well at Phoenix.
Wurth 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Christopher Bell +1400 & T10 -155 at BetMGM
Wurth 400 Bet #2: Too Much Tyler Reddick Value | NASCAR Cup Series
Last weekend’s winner, Tyler Reddick, now has seven top-10s in 10 starts this season. He doesn’t have all that impressive of a resume at Dover, but he did finish P7 last season in his first start with 23XI Racing. Reddick is trading at odds between -130 at Caesars and +115 at BetMGM just to score another top-10 finish, and at a price that good, we’ve got to pounce.
Again, Reddick has a top-10 finish in 70% of his starts this year. But when we filter out superspeedways, that number jumps to 85.7% — and that’s despite us cutting out his win at Talladega! Reddick scored 16 top-10s (44.4%) in his first season with 23XI Racing, and while some may see that as a sign that regression is incoming, I don’t believe it is.
After 10 races, I believe it’s fair to say that 23XI Racing has made a meaningful leap forward. Reddick’s teammate, Bubba Wallace, has four top-10s of his own, and both drivers are on pace to beat last year’s production by nine and four, respectively. Reddick’s average finish has jumped from 15.7 to 12.8. Wallace’s has ticked down from 15.9 to 16.5 due to a few outlier showings.
Anytime we can get Reddick in the plus money to score a top-10, I think it’s a sharp bet.
Wurth 400 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Tyler Reddick T10 +115 at BetMGM
