The NASCAR Cup Series heads to my favorite track on the schedule, Bristol Motor Speedway, for the annual Bass Pro Shops Night Race. Like the SEC, this track just means more (and, you know, it’s hosted an SEC football game). Why do I love Bristol? There are plenty of personal reasons, but professionally, I cashed Chris Buescher at +12500 (0.8%) in 2022. I haven’t hit much the last two trips here, but I’ve got a good feeling about this one. Without further ado, let’s dive into the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds and my picks for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol.
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Odds & Picks for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol (2024)
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Odds & Picks for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol
NASCAR Cup Series Odds for Bristol
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +400 |
| Denny Hamlin | +450 |
| Christopher Bell | +550 |
| Ryan Blaney | +750 |
| William Byron | +900 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1000 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1200 |
| Alex Bowman | +1200 |
| Kyle Busch | +1800 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1800 |
| Chase Elliott | +2200 |
Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview
When the NASCAR Cup Series debuted the NextGen car in 2022, there were high hopes for how it would improve racing on intermediate tracks. While it’s lived up to the hype there, short track racing has suffered.
To remedy the situation, Goodyear has been working on a higher-wear tire for Bristol, which runs the intermediate package due to its high banking. We saw this tire produce a better race in the spring, and it’s back for this race.
Bristol, a fast-paced concrete oval with high banking, really only compares well to Dover. That said, Dover is double the length. But as far as handicapping goes, those are the two tracks we’re looking at to find an edge this weekend.
There was considerable correlation between those circuits this year. Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. all scored top 5 results. Ty Gibbs, Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman all scored top 10 results. Notably absent from that list are any Ford drivers.
Now, Ford has rebounded as a manufacturer over the course of the season, and we saw them look fast in practice. Ryan Blaney recorded the fastest 10 consecutive lap average. His quasi-teammate, Harrison Burton, ranked fifth.
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Picks for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol
NASCAR Cup Series Pick: Why is Ryan Preece Such a Longshot?
I love me a longshot bet at Bristol, and this year, that’s got to be Ryan Preece. Preece has won here in both the Xfinity Series and the Whelen Modified Tour. He hasn’t been in the best equipment here in the Cup Series, but that hasn’t stopped him from recording seven straight top 20 finishes, including a top 10 here in 2020.
Despite his good resume and top 15 starting position, you’ll find Preece at odds of +24000 on FanDuel. He’s even +650 just to finish inside the top 10. With Preece out of the playoffs, the only thing he is going out to do is to try and win, and with Stewart-Haas Racing shutting down at the end of the year, I expect him to take some risks.
NASCAR Cup Series Pick for Bristol: Ryan Preece to Win +24000 & Top 10 +650 at FanDuel
NASCAR Cup Series Pick: Toyota Gets it Done
While I think Ryan Preece is more live than most likely think, the Toyota drivers are in the best position tonight. Backing Toyota gets us exposure to Denny Hamlin (+450), Christopher Bell (+550), Ty Gibbs (+1000) and Martin Truex Jr. (+1200).
If you’re doing the math at home, that’s 48.4% of implied probability already, far more than this bet’s odds of +135 (42.6%).
Those four drivers alone combined to lead 65.3% of the laps at Bristol and Dover. Hamlin also won both races. Add in Bubba Wallace (+2500) and Tyler Reddick (+3000) and we get another 20 laps led and another 7.5% of implied probability.
My biggest worry here is obviously Kyle Larson (+350), especially with him starting on the front row, but I’m comfortable with the risk at these odds.
NASCAR Cup Series Pick for Bristol: Toyota +135 (+180 Boosted!) at DraftKings
