The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the high banks of Talladega for what promises to be a thrilling playoff race. With just two more races to go before the Round of 8, drivers like Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe may need wins if they want to keep competing for a championship. Without further ado, let’s dive into the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds and my picks for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega.
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Odds & Picks for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Odds & Picks for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega
NASCAR Cup Series Odds for Talladega
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +750 |
| Kyle Busch | +900 |
| Joey Logano | +1000 |
| Michael McDowell | +1300 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1400 |
| Kyle Larson | +1600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1600 |
| Chase Elliott | +1600 |
| Austin Cindric | +1600 |
| William Byron | +1800 |
| Christopher Bell | +2000 |
YellaWood 500 Race Preview
Playoff superspeedway racing can get crazy. Although we can’t classify Daytona and Talladega as restrictor-plate races anymore, they’re still drafting tracks, and Atlanta joined them as one after its reconfiguration just a few seasons ago.
While the end of superspeedway races comes down to a lot of luck and chance, we’ve seen one constant at superspeedways in the NextGen Era: Fords will start up front and lead a ton of laps.
Every polesitter at a superspeedway race this season was behind the wheel of a Blue Oval. Every driver who led the most laps at a superspeedway was also behind the wheel of a Blue Oval. The problem is more that only the last two (out of five) winners on these tracks piloted a Blue Oval.
This race is also in the playoffs, and with elimination looming for another four teams, it’s fair to expect more aggression than normal this weekend. Aggression can lead to crashes, which can take out even the most reasonable drivers who are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Picks for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega
NASCAR Cup Series Pick: It’s Justin Haley Hours
When Spire Motorsports announced that they would be bringing back Justin Haley from Rick Ware Racing, I was immediately intrigued by the implications for their superspeedway program. Haley has won on a superspeedway with Spire before, albeit due to a rain-shortened race, but his dominance on drafting tracks in the Xfinity Series has already translated to some decent runs in Cup.
Haley now joins a three-car team, which is important as most of his success in Xfinity came as a member of a three-car stable. He hasn’t had the chance to work with multiple teammates since going Cup Racing full-time. Spire’s three drivers all qualified near the rear of the field, but that will just make it easier for them to start working their way through the field together.
The best odds you’ll find for Haley to win this one outright are at Caesars, where he clocks in at +5500. He is also +170 to score a top 10 at FanDuel. I don’t really love the pricing of either line, but with most of the market at or around +4000 for Haley to win outright, there is still enough value to pounce on here. Still, I’m concentrating most of my action in the next bet.
NASCAR Cup Series Pick for Bristol: Justin Haley to Win +5500 at Caesars & Top 10 +170 at FanDuel
NASCAR Cup Series Pick: Ford Comes Out on Top
Ford drivers have won the last two superspeedway races, including the lone playoff superspeedway event. They continue to lead the most laps at these tracks, too. While a lot can happen on the last lap at any track, especially Talladega, getting Ford to win this race at +125 is a good bet.
This wager ranges in odds from +100 (50%) to +125 (44.4%). However, it gets us exposure to Blaney (11.8%), Logano (9.1%), McDowell (7.1%), Keselowski (6.8%), Cindric (5.8%), Buescher and Briscoe (both 3.8%) — along with several less competitive backmarkers.
The key component of that list above is that it includes four playoff drivers, three of which have won on superspeedways in the Cup Series before, including during this postseason. With a win the only way for anyone to punch their ticket to the Round of 8, don’t expect Ford to fumble its edge on superspeedways this weekend.
NASCAR Cup Series Pick for Bristol: Ford +125 at BetMGM
