The NASCAR Cup Series heads to my home track, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, for the USA Today 301 this weekend. Last year’s event saw Martin Truex Jr. dominate from the get-to, leading 254 of 301 laps. The year before, Christopher Bell won after leading just 42 laps, stealing a win from Truex, who had led 172. The two Joe Gibbs Racing drivers are heavily favored this weekend, but as I dive into the NASCAR Cup Series odds (and my predictions) for the USA Today 301, a different driver stands out as a sharp NASCAR pick for the weekend.
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NASCAR Cup Series Odds, Picks & Predictions: USA Today 301
NASCAR Cup Series Odds, Picks & Predictions: USA Today 301
NASCAR New Hampshire Odds
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | +400 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +500 |
| Kyle Larson | +600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +600 |
| Ryan Blaney | +750 |
| Joey Logano | +850 |
| Chase Elliott | +1100 |
| William Byron | +1200 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1800 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2000 |
NASCAR New Hampshire Race Preview
In the new short-track package era, New Hampshire Motor Speedway has featured some pretty tame events. Martin Truex Jr. has led 70.7% of all possible laps, and, as he prepares for retirement, will look to score a second win (it’s wild he hasn’t won more!) at one of his best tracks.
Christopher Bell stands out as another driver who could be just as dominant here. He has been in the Xfinity Series, where he has three wins at New Hampshire in three starts, in which he led 71.7% of all possible laps. He’ll be back in the Xfinity Series for this weekend’s race, too, and is -110 to win.
After Truex and Bell, it’s the championship favorite, Kyle Larson, and another Joe Gibbs Racing driver, Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has three wins here but none since 2017. Larson has led 22 laps in 13 starts but owns three runner-up finishes and two third-place finishes.
Recently, we’ve seen two faces on short, relatively flat ovals that use the short-track package: Iowa last weekend and North Wilkesboro a few weeks ago. Ryan Blaney (+750) won the former race and Joey Logano (+850) won the latter — and both did so in dominant fashion. Blaney led 57% of the laps and Logano led 99.5%.
NASCAR Cup Series Picks & Predictions for the USA Today 301 at New Hampshire
Don’t Forget About Brad Keselowski!
The biggest thing that jumps out to me on the market for this weekend’s race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway is by far the fact that Brad Keselowski’s odds are too long. Sure, he’s +1200 (7.7%) at DraftKings, but he is +1600 (5.9%) at FanDuel and other books. That’s too generous for a two-time winner here.
The 1.8% difference in Keselowski’s outright odds may not seem huge, but (a) that’s a difference of $400 if you’re betting $100, and (b) there’s also a wide range on his top-5 and top-10 odds. Looking at the top-10 market, Keselowski is -200 (66.7%) at DraftKings but only -155 (60.8%) at Fanatics, which is a far more meaningful difference.
Keselowski’s New Hampshire resume is objectively impressive. Since he took over the No. 2 car in 2011, he has made 20 starts here, racking up two wins (10%), 10 top-5s (50%) and 15 top-10s (75%) — rates that are clearing his implied odds on each market by a healthy margin. In the Xfinity Series, he made 10 starts from 2008 to 2018, and racked up two wins, eight top-5s and 10 top-10s.
Look for Keselowski to lift the lobster after Sunday’s USA Today 301 — he’s my top pick for New Hampshire.
NASCAR Cup Series Pick for the USA Today 301: Keselowski +1600 at FanDuel, T5 +250 at FanDuel, T10 -155 at Fanatics
