The U.S. Open has almost arrived, which means it’s time to get your money down before the opening round tees off on Thursday morning. Our staff has already compiled their best bets for the tournament, and while outright and top-20 markets are great, we can’t forget about matchups. Also known as head-to-head markets, tournament matchups pit one golfer against the other, meaning one side is guaranteed to win. Let’s discuss the best golf matchup bet for the 2023 U.S. Open, per OddsShopper’s market-based models.
Readers looking for all the best PGA bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
2023 U.S. Open Matchup Bets & Predictions: One PGA Star is Undervalued
Rory McIlroy (-130) vs. Brooks Koepka | PGA Matchup Betting
The 2023 U.S. Open will get underway at the Los Angeles Country Club, or LACC, this Thursday morning. The LACC hasn’t hosted much tournament play in recent decades. It hosted no major golf tournaments from 1954 until 2017 when the Walker Cup took place here. LACC has hosted a few college golf tournaments, including the 2013 Pac-12 Championship, which Max Homa won, and, in the process, set the course record of nine under par.
All of this is to say that if you’re looking to find an edge with course history, you won’t find much out there. That means bettors may need to lean more heavily on recent form, which, if you’ve been paying attention, means Brooks Koepka stands out for his runner-up at Augusta in April and his PGA Championship win in May.
But is Rory McIlroy a better bet? Although Koepka owns shorter outright odds at 11-1 relative to McIlroy’s 12-1 via BetMGM, our market-based model finds some value on McIlroy via the matchup markets. Koepka has achieved his strong PGA results in a two-tournament sample. His results from the LIV Tour this year are far less impressive — in seven tournaments, he won once with only three T10s. McIlroy has nine PGA appearances this year, through which he has recorded one runner-up and three T10s against stronger competition.
OddsShopper’s market-based model would put McIlroy at odds of -139 (58.2%) to finish ahead of Koepka. Instead, BetMGM is offering McIlroy at odds of -130 (56.5%). This isn’t the world’s biggest edge, but it’s still enough to warrant targeting. If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM, you can get first bet insurance worth up to $1,000!
Best U.S. Open Matchup Bet: Rory McIlroy -130 vs. Brooks Koepka at BetMGM
