After knocking off the No. 1 seed in the East, the Heat begin their Round 2 series with the Knicks today at 1 p.m. ET. Ahead of the early-afternoon tip, we need to check out OddsShopper’s best player prop for Game 1 on Sunday, April 30. As of now, no game line for Heat-Knicks has a good positive ROI, so we will just focus on the best prop.
To get access to more NBA player props and best bets for playoff games today, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Best Bet for Heat-Knicks Game 1
Bam Adebayo O/U 8.5 Rebounds
Despite an eye-opening performance by the Heat in knocking off the Bucks to get through Round 1, Adebayo was pretty up and down with his individual numbers. He hit this rebound over in three of five games, but Giannis Antetokounmpo missed several of those. There were no dominant rebound performances in Giannis’ absence, even in games where Adebayo inched over 8.5 rebounds. He even struggled getting over this line in the last few weeks of the regular season.
Now Adebayo is facing a Knicks team that was second in rebound percentage this year and has a deep rotation of solid bigs. Julius Randle is questionable, but even if he misses, New York has Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein, plus solid rebounders on the perimeter in Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson and R.J. Barrett.
Adebayo under 8.5 rebounds has a 60% expected win rate right now, one of the highest among +EV plays, and that is driving the expected ROI up to 3% despite less-than-ideal -140 odds on DraftKings. With no game lines looking particularly great right now, this is the top bet for Heat-Knicks today.
Best Heat-Knicks NBA Player Prop: Kevin Love UNDER 8.5 Rebound (-140, DraftKings)
