We had a solid night last night, and the big winner was doubling down on the Brooklyn-Milwaukee over. That’s what we love to see. But as always, we move forward — no time to celebrate too long in this grind of an NBA season. There are no locks on today’s slate, but I’m feeling good about these spots. Here we’re going over the best NBA bets for today, covering game lines, odds and player props. If you haven’t read our NBA +EV betting guide, it’s a great help alongside our other free NBA expert picks and +EV NBA bets!
Best NBA Bets Today: Player Props, Lines & Odds
Before we dive in, don’t forget to grab 50% off my Tails subscription by using promo code LINDY50 at checkout! Now we head to the picks.
San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) at Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn’s on a back-to-back after an unexpected win against Milwaukee last night, thanks to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard sitting out. Kudos to the Nets for getting it done, but tonight they face a rested San Antonio squad. Victor Wembanyama continues to impress, but the prop markets for him look pretty efficient at opening.
As for the spread, I lean towards San Antonio -6.5. My model has this closer to -7, but that’s not enough of an edge to make it an official play. Keep an eye on Ben Simmons‘ status, as he’s a wild card on back-to-backs. For now, it’s just a lean.
NBA Best Bet: Spurs -6.5 (LEAN)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets (-1)
This is a fascinating spot. Houston is also on a back-to-back after dismantling New Orleans, but none of its starters played more than 31 minutes. That’s significant, as the Rockets should have fresher legs than Minnesota, who grinded out a win against Dallas on Christmas Day.
I’m making a small half-unit play on Houston moneyline (-110) at Fanatics. It’s a great number in a coin-flip matchup, and Houston’s ability to limit its starters’ minutes last night gives it a slight edge.
NBA Best Bet: Rockets Moneyline (LIKE)
Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5) at New Orleans Pelicans
The Grizzlies put on an absolute show two nights ago, dropping 155 points on Toronto. They’re short-handed with Santi Aldama banged up, but their main guys like Jaren Jackson Jr. didn’t have to log heavy minutes. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to struggle, with C.J. McCollum and the rest of the roster failing to find any consistency.
The total here is set at 237.5, which feels high given the potential for tired legs on both sides. My data shows this closer to 231.5 or 232, making the under my favorite play of the day. However, I’m hesitant to lock this in due to potential injury news. If Trey Murphy sits, it’ll only strengthen the case for the under, so keep an eye on updates.
NBA Best Bet: Grizzlies-Pelicans Under 237.5 (LIKE)
