Eric Lindquist here, ready to break down another edition of NBA Leans, Likes and Locks for this Friday slate. Today I have a seven-game NBA slate to tackle. While I thought I’d lean heavily into props, I ended up finding value in some other spots as well. As always, these picks reflect the process I use to identify opportunities, whether they’re already locked in or still under consideration. Let’s dive into the best bets of the day! And as always, read our NBA +EV betting guide to help with today’s NBA expert picks and +EV NBA bets!
Best NBA Bets Today: Player Props, Lines & Odds
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Sacramento Kings vs. Boston Celtics
Sacramento heads into Boston as a double-digit underdog, and with De’Aaron Fox questionable, we’re keeping a close eye on his status. If Fox is out, Boston’s already stifling defense could make this an uphill battle for the Kings.
Boston’s injury report looks relatively clean, with the usual “downgrade to questionable then out” scenario unlikely here. That sets the stage for Jrue Holiday, who has seen an uptick in usage even alongside Derrick White, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. His 19.5 points + rebounds + assists line is a strong target, especially since my projections have him closer to 22 points + rebounds + assists.
NBA Best Bet: Jrue Holiday Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (LIKE)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks
This game intrigues me for multiple reasons. Oklahoma City’s frontcourt lacks a dominant interior presence, and Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable. If Towns suits up, it could actually enhance this play by giving Isaiah Hartenstein more opportunities for easy rebounds and second-chance points against a suspect rim protector.
My minutes projection has him trending up slightly — enough to push his points + rebounds line well over 24.5. With his former team on the opposing bench, don’t underestimate the added motivation. This one lands firmly in lock territory.
NBA Best Bet: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds (LOCK)
Washington Wizards vs. Chicago Bulls
It’s a tough watch whenever Washington’s on the floor given its constant injury carousel and poor team play. For Chicago, Lonzo Ball presents a buy-low opportunity with his 14.5 points + rebounds + assists line, particularly in a game where cleanup duty could boost his production late.
On the other hand, Coby White has seen increased usage in the absence of Ayo Dosunmu, making him a prime candidate for a 3-point ladder against Washington’s porous perimeter defense. Target his standard over first, then consider alternate lines for added value.
NBA Best Bet: Lonzo Ball Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists, Coby White 3-Pointers Ladder (LEANS)
Brooklyn Nets vs. Denver Nuggets
Brooklyn heads into Denver as a significant underdog, but there’s reason to believe it can keep this one within the number. Nikola Jokic sat out the last back-to-back, and while he’s no longer listed on the injury report, the Nuggets have little incentive to push their star player against a depleted Brooklyn squad.
With Cam Thomas, Cameron Johnson and D’Angelo Russell sidelined for Brooklyn, the market may overestimate Denver’s margin here. Even without Jokic, Denver proved capable of winning as underdogs earlier this week, but this feels like a letdown spot. Keep an eye on the injury report and pounce on Brooklyn if Jokic is ruled out.
NBA Best Bet: Nets +15.5 (LEAN)
