What’s going on, everybody? Eric Lindquist here from Stokastic, bringing you the Friday edition of NBA Lindy’s Leans, Likes and Locks. With nine games on the slate tonight, there’s plenty to cover, so let’s get into the best NBA bets for today with game lines, odds and player props. If you haven’t read our NBA +EV betting guide, it’s a great help alongside our other free NBA expert picks and +EV NBA bets!
Best NBA Bets Today: Player Props, Lines & Odds
Before we dive in, don’t forget to grab 50% off my Tails subscription by using promo code LINDY50 at checkout! Now we head to the picks.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets
I have a soft spot for Victor Wembanyama, but this matchup is a tall order against Nikola Jokic. While Denver is playing well, particularly with Russell Westbrook thriving alongside Jokic, its bench is thin. Peyton Watson is the best option off the bench, and that’s saying something.
I have this line closer to Denver -5, so getting San Antonio at +7 has some value. It’s not my favorite play of the day, but I’m liking the Spurs to cover the spread here.
NBA Best Bet: Spurs +7 (LIKE)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings
This is my favorite play of the night. Memphis is getting 4 points against Sacramento, and I just don’t see why. The Kings pulled off a big comeback against the Joel Embiid-less 76ers, but their defensive struggles are glaring.
Meanwhile, Memphis is deep. Even with some question marks (Zach Edey, Jake LaRavia and Brandon Clarke are all questionable), the Grizzlies’ depth and two-way play give them the edge here. Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Scotty Pippen Jr. are all in solid form, and if Memphis gets a couple of those questionable tags to go their way, I love them even more.
I’ve modeled this game as closer to a pick’em, so getting 4 points feels like a steal. You could consider taking the moneyline at +154, but I’ll lock in the spread and feel great about it.
NBA Best Bet: Grizzlies +4 (LOCK)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are giving 3.5 points, but this one hinges on injury news. Anthony Davis sat out the second half of their back-to-back earlier this week, likely as a rest precaution. Trae Young and Jalen Johnson are both questionable for Atlanta, and their statuses will be crucial.
Young has been in playmaking mode this season, leading the league in assists while posting a career low in points per game. If Johnson suits up, I like him to get at least 25 combined points and assists at -115. For now, this game is a lean until we get more clarity on the injury front.
NBA Best Bet: Jalen Johnson 25+ Points + Assists (LEAN)
