Eric Lindquist here bringing you another edition of NBA Leans, Likes and Locks for a busy hump day. Now, I have to warn you — today’s card is a bit unique. With so many unknowns surrounding back-to-backs and injuries, I’m keeping it simple. By simple, I mean there is just one official play on the betting card. The rest of the slate all about breaking down the process and leaning into the numbers for our best NBA bets today. That said, be sure to check out our NBA +EV betting guide — it’s a great help to pair with today’s NBA expert picks and +EV NBA bets!
Best NBA Bets Today: Player Props, Lines & Odds
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
We start off with the marquee game between two of the best defensive teams in the league: The Thunder and the Cavaliers. Both teams rank in the top 3 in adjusted defensive rating, and this total feels too high at 230.5. I’ve already placed this bet because the number seems off by about 8 points.
While the pace has been solid for both teams, the defensive intensity they bring should keep the scoring in check. Oklahoma City is without Chet Holmgren for now, but its defensive schemes are top-tier. Cleveland, despite some bench uncertainty with Isaac Okoro and Sam Merrill questionable, still has its primary starters locked in for major minutes.
This is a spot where defense shines in a high-profile matchup, making the under an excellent play.
NBA Best Bet: Under 230.5 (LIKE)
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
On the flip side, we have two teams that live on the opposite end of the defensive spectrum. The Bulls and Pacers rank 23rd and 24th in adjusted defensive rating, respectively. And the paces are blazing: Indiana is seventh in pace, while Chicago is third.
This matchup screams points, but at a total of 240.5, it’s right on the edge of playable. If this number dips below 240, I’d consider the over, but keep an eye on Tyrese Halliburton’s status. If he’s ruled out, that would change the dynamics entirely.
NBA Best Bet: Over 240.5 (LEAN)
Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers are hosting the Wizards, and this game features plenty of question marks. Joel Embiid and Paul George are both out, leaving Tyrese Maxey as the focal point of Philadelphia’s offense. Maxey has consistently delivered in these situations, and I’m expecting him to clear 30 points easily, with a ceiling closer to 35.
However, with Washington coming off a brutal loss to Houston (and Kyle Kuzma leaving that game with an injury), I’m hesitant to lock in anything just yet. The Wizards could implode again, making this one a stay-away until more clarity on props becomes available.
NBA Best Bet: Tyrese Maxey 30+ Points (LEAN)
