It looks like at least one team hit the holiday weekend a little early, as the Dallas Mavericks will be without multiple starters, most notably Luka Doncic. Four of the other five games feature a player with at least one MVP to his name, although some are on different trajectories right now. There are a couple of different ways to attack tonight’s six-game slate, be it riding the injured team or finding value in a late-night under play. Here are the best NBA bets for Friday, Dec. 22.
Best NBA Bets Today: +EV NBA Side and Total for Dec. 22
Best NBA Side: Mavericks-Rockets Point Spread
There’s no way the Houston Rockets will lose this game, but there’s a tight chance they will get out with a cover. The Rockets are one of the best teams against the spread at home across the NBA, but when you hear “No Luka Doncic,” human nature kicks in. It’s the biggest mental roadblock to overcome — taking on a team missing both of its superstars in a game not even featured in prime time. The counter is how well the Rockets play at home, with a 10-2-1 record against the spread in Houston — not to mention their margin of victory in covers sitting over 11 points per game.
The Mavericks are losers of two straight, plus Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II. Betting against injury can be dangerous, as the talent gap doesn’t always reflect desire. The Rockets are cruising at home and welcome in a banged-up opponent who dropped two straight games; it’s natural to see a dip in performance — possibly for just enough time for the Mavs to stay in this game. Tim Hardaway Jr. is the second-leading 3-point shooter on the team and will have far more volume tonight. Dallas will be OK in cover mode; just don’t take the moneyline.
OddsShopper found 8.5 at BetRivers, which is above the key number of 7. It’s worth noting that, even without their two superstars, the Mavs are only getting 8 points.
Best NBA Side Bet: Dallas Mavericks +8.5 (-110 at BetRivers)
Best NBA Total: Kings-Suns O/U 243
The Boston Celtics just worked the Kings in Sacramento, a big loss that snapped a three-game win streak. Phoenix is not Boston; the best play would be relying on what went well for the Kings and how they can duplicate it tonight against the Suns. While Sacramento was just torched under its own basket, it did drop 119 in the losing effort. That’s actually less than all three prior games, all at home and all wins. The Kings just ran into an unfortunate opponent that was going to ultimately outscore them no matter what. Their ability to score shouldn’t change.
The Suns are down a couple of key players, already missing Bradley Beal, and now they are now without Jusuf Nurkic. Phoenix is dealing with a mid-level offense, 15th in the league in points per game, but the pacing will help them push over its 114.9 nightly average. More possessions equal more chances to score, and the pace in this game should allow for it. Both teams need an offensive breakout, and at least one is willing to sacrifice a little on defense to get there.
OddsShopper found a slight edge on FanDuel at over 243, saving a hook at other books.
Best NBA Total Bet: Over 243 (-110 at FanDuel)
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