Parlay betting is a popular way to win big on sports betting, but it can be difficult to pick the right combination of bets. However, by using a market-based approach and the OddsShopper premium tool, we can identify the best plays with positive expected value (EV). Here we will break down three NBA picks that can be combined into a lucrative parlay on BetMGM.
Best NBA Parlay: Eytan’s Picks | BetMGM
Gordon Hayward Under 4.5 Assists (+105)
OddsShopper has identified this play as a +EV bet, beating the market to the tune of a +3% xROI. This means that the bet has a positive expected value, making it a smart choice for a parlay. Hayward has averaged 4.0 assists per game this season, and he has only recorded more than 4.5 assists in 17 of 45 games this year. He is more of a scoring threat than a playmaker, and the Charlotte Hornets have plenty of other players who can distribute the ball. Therefore, it is likely that Hayward will fall short of 4.5 assists in this game.
Mike Conley Over 10.5 Points (-110)
Conley is averaging 10.8 points per game this season, and he has scored more than 10.5 points in four of his last six games. He is not the most reliable scorer, but he can create his own shot and knock down 3’s, making him a good bet to hit the over in this game.
Anthony Davis Under 13.5 Rebounds (-110)
Davis is averaging 12.6 rebounds per game this season, and he has only recorded more than 13.5 rebounds in three of his last six games. He is a dominant rebounder when he is engaged, but he can also be passive at times and defer to his teammates. The Lakers also have other capable rebounders, which could limit Davis’ opportunities on the glass.
Total DraftKings NBA Parlay Odds: +647
Combining these three picks into a parlay can yield a significant return on investment. The parlay is currently priced at +647, with an expected ROI of 8% and an expected win rate of 14%. This means that for every $100 wagered on the parlay, we can expect to win $8 on average and have a 14% chance of winning the bet.
