We scored a 1-1 split last night, cashing a Deandre Ayton under but losing one for De’Aaron Fox. But with a loaded NBA card on tap this evening, I’m optimistic that we can go 2-0. I’ve dug up two solid spots to attack on today’s card with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium, so let’s get into my NBA player prop picks for De’Aaron Fox and Karl-Anthony Towns.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Karl-Anthony Towns & More
De’Aaron Fox Player Prop
We faded De’Aaron Fox last night, and because head coach Mike Brown decided not to pull him midway through the fourth quarter despite the large deficit the Sacramento Kings were facing, we lost the under. Oh well — we’ll fade him again tonight. The Kings are on the wrong end of a back-to-back and relegated themselves to the play-in tournament with yesterday’s loss, and they’ll now face a motivated Phoenix Suns team that can still stay out of the play-in.
We’re getting Fox’s points and assists line at 35.5 today, which is two higher than what we got yesterday. Fox is averaging only 26.5 points and 6 assists per game since the All-Star Break (32.5), 25.1 and 6.5 when playing at home (31.6) and 26 and 4.4 when playing without rest (30.4). There is an argument that he’ll see an increased workload since the Kings are still fighting for seeding, but with the Suns having much more to play for, I’m skeptical about how aggressive Brown will get with his star players.
The Suns also deserve some credit for their defense down the stretch. The Suns rank 12th in points allowed to point guards over the last 15 games (23.6), although have also given up the seventh-most assists (9.5) through that span. But Phoenix’s overall defensive rating clocks in at 12th (112.1) since the All-Star Break, and they have given up a league average share of assists per game to all positions since the pause as well (26.5).
NBA Player Prop Pick: De’Aaron Fox Under 35.5 Points & Assists -125 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our De’Aaron Fox points and assists live odds page!
Karl-Anthony Towns Player Prop
Running back the Fox under is my top NBA player prop pick for today’s slate, and with that out of the way, let’s dive into the top bet I saw on OddsShopper Premium this morning. When wagering on NBA player props, I have a structured approach: I look at the schedule, the injury report and OddsShopper Premium all before beginning my research. I saw this Karl-Anthony Towns player prop trading with positive expected value (+EV) and immediately added it to my card.
Towns, who has been out of the lineup since March 4, will return to action this evening versus the Atlanta Hawks. He was averaging 22.1 points and 2.2 3-pointers per game before his injury on 32.8 minutes of work, but I suspect he’ll be on a minutes restriction today as the Timberwolves don’t want to jeopardize their postseason aspirations. Plus, Atlanta’s poor defensive play usually frees up higher-percentage interior looks for big men, so I suspect we’ll see more driving and less sharpshooting from KAT today.
But the model wants action on this prop for market-based, not projection-based reasons. Our +EV betting tools index the odds across the market; adjust for factors like book sharpness and hold; and generate a breakeven price (called “true odds”) that, when exceeded by the odds available at a sportsbook, render a wager a +EV bet. That’s the case with this Karl-Anthony Towns under today — we’re beating the true odds of -109 by buying this bet for +100 at BetMGM:
You’ll see that KAT is trading at odds of -105 or worse at pretty much every other book, which is why the true odds of this wager are -109. BetMGM and DraftKings have outlier prices that would be smart to exploit.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Under 1.5 3-Pointers +100 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, see our Karl-Anthony Towns 3-pointers live odds page.
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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