After our awesome 3-0 sweep on Wednesday, we fell flat with a shaky 1-2 night on Thursday, losing a Max Strus over (again, 🙄) and a Jamal Murray under but cashing a Kyle Lowry over. Oh well, let’s rally tonight! This evening, I’ve found three spots worth getting a unit on with the help of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools, but only members of our Discord have the third. Now, let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Anthony Edwards and Patrick Beverley. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Anthony Edwards & More
Patrick Beverley Player Prop
The basketball will begin early tonight as the Milwaukee Bucks will visit the Indiana Pacers at 5:30 p.m. ET. Say what you will about Patrick Beverley, but he’s been getting quality looks all series — he tallied four uncontested field goals in both Games 1 and 2, and while he shot only 2-for-8 (25%), I suspect that number will improve in Game 3.
Beverley scored exactly five points in the first two games of this series on shooting splits of 40/50/NA and 20/0/100. Beverley is a career 41/37/76 shooter and shot 42/34/82 in the regular season this year. His poor shooting while left open has led the books to discount his points prop. We can buy the over 6.5 for +100 on BetMGM, which is more than good enough for me.
Beverley made eight regular-season starts for the Bucks this year and scored at least six points in 75%. I suspect the Pacers will concentrate more of their defensive attention on Damian Lillard this evening, as the veteran point guard has cooked them for 69 points already this series, which should give Beverley enough quality looks in the backcourt.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Patrick Beverley Over 6.5 Points +100 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Patrick Beverley points live odds page!
Anthony Edwards Player Prop
The Phoenix Suns find themselves in a 0-2 hole versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, and a loss tonight virtually guarantees their elimination in the first round. I have some faith in the Suns’ ability to bounce back, and one key area they’ll have to improve is stopping Anthony Edwards as a passer. The budding superstar averaged just 5.1 assists per game in the regular season but has averaged seven per game this series. Both myself and our NBA +EV betting tools recommend fading him as a passer tonight — the model reaches that conclusion because we’re getting his under on the assists market at a price with positive expected value (+EV):
Edwards is only -105 at DraftKings to stay under 5.5 assists. The bet will cost you -110 or worse at just about every other public book. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this wager priced down at -133.
So how do our NBA betting tools work? They index the odds from across the market; adjust for hold, book sharpness and more; and generate a wager’s true odds (a breakeven price).
In this case, the -105 at DraftKings exceeds the true odds of -117 enough for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $25.
With OddsShopper Premium, you can quickly find bets for almost all sports with +EV every day. Bets like this one, over a large enough sample, can help you transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine.
While you won’t win every bet, and your bankroll won’t transform overnight, we have the results to prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run.
For more picks, sign up for OddsShopper Premium. You can use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week (or month) for 50% off (regular price of $14.95 weekly, $49.95 monthly)! If you still have questions, check our guide to using +EV tools!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 5.5 Assists -105 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, see our Anthony Edwards assists live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
