Last night was fun — we climbed our Deandre Ayton ladder and hit our Victor Wembanyama under, but we lost our Desmond Bane under. Still, my full NBA cards are now up to 154-116-6 (+42.8u) on the year. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Joel Embiid, Kyle Lowry and Domantas Sabonis. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Joel Embiid & More
Kyle Lowry Player Prop
The Atlanta Hawks have been unable to prevent opposing point guards from racking up assists. They have allowed 9.7 assists per game to the position thus far, which ranks 28th, to go with 28.6 overall assists per game, which ranks 29th. Kyle Lowry has often feasted against the Hawks in the assist column, averaging 5.8 per game with the Miami Heat over a five-game sample.
The Heat won’t have Jimmy Butler tonight, which should put the ball in Lowry’s hands more often. Butler leads the Heat in assists (4.6) and potential assists (9.5) per game. Lowry ranks third in assists (4.2) but second in potential assists (8.7) and first in passes made (48.8). In 43 games without Butler since 2022-23, Lowry averaged 5.9 assists per game.
Lowry sits at odds of +118 at FanDuel to record over 4.5 assists, which is an absolute joke — that line should not be above even, let alone that far above even. While Lowry is averaging only 4.2 actual assists per game, he has beaten that number in 12 of 21 games without Butler dating back to last season. That includes two games against the Hawks through which he averaged 6.5 per game. I’m laddering this one to eight (+800 at FanDuel) through six (+230 at FanDuel).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Lowry Over 4.5 Assists +118 at FanDuel
Joel Embiid Player Prop
Look, I get it: Joel Embiid is a monster. He is averaging a wild 35.1 points per game, which leads next-best Luka Doncic by almost 2.5 points. Few players compare to him at this point. But that doesn’t change the simple fact that 37 is a lot of points to score for anyone. Embiid has only reached that number nine times this season. He scored a still-impressive 34 against the Toronto Raptors earlier in the year, but that wouldn’t have been enough to cash the over. I can’t stay away from a number this inflated — and OddsShopper Premium can’t stay away, either.
A few non-market-based factors point to value here. The Raptors rank a slow 21st in pace. They also rank 13th in points allowed per game to centers (21.9). Embiid has only once dropped 37 or more against Toronto as well.
Statistics aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Joel Embiid under today because of the pricing disparity. The under 36.5 is priced at only -115 (54.5%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -126 (55.8). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 35.5 priced down at -131 (56.7%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Joel Embiid Under 36.5 Points -115 at DraftKings
Domantas Sabonis Player Prop
I don’t love tonight’s slate, so we’re going to have to get a bit weird for our third and final pick. I dug up a funky angle for Domantas Sabonis, who will take on the Phoenix Suns tonight. Jusuf Nurkic is out, which means we’re likely to see Drew Eubanks for plenty of minutes at the five.
I like Eubanks, but he isn’t as efficient as Nurkic. Sabonis and Eubanks started against each other three times last year, back when Eubanks was still a member of the Portland Trail Blazers. Sabonis averaged two steals per game and tallied at least one in each meeting.
Sabonis isn’t the greatest swiper, but he is still averaging 0.9 steals per game this year and 0.8 steals per game since joining the Kings. We’ve seen him record at least one steal in 14 of 26 games this year (53.8%), which isn’t the best hit rate, but the matchup firmly pushes me to get action on the over — the Suns have been coughing the ball up at a surprisingly high rate all year.
Phoenix ranks 26th in steals allowed per game at 8.4. Opposing centers haven’t gotten in on the fun much — Phoenix ranks eighth in steals allowed per game to that position (1.2) — but just about everyone else has. The Suns rank 30th in steals per game to power forwards (1.9), 26th against small forwards (1.8) and 28th against point guards (2.2). With Nurkic sidelined, look for Sabonis to get in on the action with at least one steal.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Domantas Sabonis Over 0.5 Steals -145 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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