Thursday didn’t go terribly — our LeBron James bet voided and we cashed our eighth bet on Jaren Jackson Jr. of the season — but we also lost our Jaylen Brown ladder. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Kyle Kuzma, Paolo Banchero and Clint Capela. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
Along with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards dipped to 271-262-15 (+28.6u) on the season last night. Let’s get the coin back tonight Also, if you haven’t been sold on our market-based betting system yet, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Kyle Kuzma & More
Kyle Kuzma Player Prop
The Washington Wizards are not a good basketball team. They’ll host the Miami Heat tonight as an 8-point dog. Miami’s slow pace and efficient defense should cause problems for Kuzma. The Heat rank 13th in defensive rating (114.2) and 29th in pace (97.5) this season, and while the recent losing streak is a concern, it’s not like the Heat have been letting opposing studs rip them for big games — opposing role players have been the issue.
Recent games support the conclusion that the Heat lock down opposing high-volume players. On Wednesday, De’Aaron Fox scored 13 while Domantas Sabonis scored 19. On Monday, Kevin Durant scored only 20 while Devin Booker tallied 22. The Heat also held Jaren Jackson Jr. to 15 a week before. The leading scorers for Miami’s opponents in those games? Keegan Murray (33), Eric Gordon (23) and Vince Williams Jr. (25).
You’ll find Kuzma’s points prop trading at 22.5. He scored exactly 22 against the Heat earlier this season in an oddly efficient scoring night for Kuz — he shot 42/44/100, outpacing both his splits from this season (46/33/80) and his career (45/34/73). With Miami playing so slowly, don’t expect Kuz to get the chances he’ll need to go over this line. With Jordan Poole now listed as available, we’re also avoiding the risk of a late scratch like the one that busted this bet on Wednesday.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Kuzma Under 22.5 Points -110 at Hard Rock
Paolo Banchero Player Prop
The Orlando Magic will visit the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, which probably won’t go well for the road team. After a hot start, Orlando has come crashing back to Earth, now sitting at 25-23 and eighth in the Eastern Conference. The slow-paced and defensively efficient Timberwolves should limit Orlando’s offense tonight, especially in the assist column, and OddsShopper Premium has identified an edge on the assist market for Paolo Banchero. The model has an ROI of 12% for assist props over at Fanatics — for more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Paolo Banchero under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 4.5 is priced at only -105 (51.2%) at Fanatics — which is worse than the true odds of -119 (54.3%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over under 4.5 for -128 (56.1%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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Even if you don’t buy into our market-based reasoning, Banchero’s matchup versus the Timberwolves is a tough one. Minnesota ranks third in assists allowed per game this year (24.4) and first in assists allowed to power forwards like Banchero (3.2). They have allowed even fewer (2.5) over the last seven games.
Banchero is averaging exactly five assists per game this year, but much of that production came with several of his teammates sidelined. Further, Banchero tallied only three assists in a previous matchup against the Timberwolves this season.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Paolo Banchero Under 4.5 Assists -105 at Fanatics
Clint Capela Player Prop
The Atlanta Hawks will host the Phoenix Suns tonight and the Golden State Warriors tomorrow. I strongly suspect we’ll see head coach Quin Snyder stagger his players’ minutes because of the rough bit of scheduling, especially with the softer matchup scheduled for tomorrow. That could have consequences for veteran center Clint Capela.
The Hawks have a hyper-talented reserve center in youngster Onyeka Okongwu, which makes spelling Capela for long stretches a realistic option. Capela’s minutes are down from 26.6 per game last year to 25.8 this year while Okongwu’s are up to 24.7 from 23.1. The most recent back-to-back the Hawks played saw Capela get 22 minutes in both contests while Okongwu got 26 and 23, respectively.
With Capela’s points prop trading at 11.5 — higher than his season average (11.4) and his average in January (10) — we’re getting a solid load of value against this line. Although Capela has gone for 12-plus points in his last two games, he failed to reach that mark in the preceding five contests. He went for 12-plus only five times over the course of 14 games in January.
The Suns have also limited opposing centers on the scoreboard. Phoenix ranks eighth in points allowed per game to the position this year (21.8) and over the last seven games (20.2). Capela hasn’t played the Suns since they added Jusuf Nurkic, but he averaged eight points per game against the team last year, failing to even reach double digits. Capela only scored 10 in his lone start versus Nurkic last season.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Clint Capela Under 11.5 Points -115 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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