Yesterday’s article scored a solid 2-1 showing, cashing an under for Scottie Barnes and an over for Myles Turner. Tyrese Maxey went off, cooking the under, but it is what it is. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks for James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Trae Young. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +21.1u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for James Harden & More
Trae Young Player Prop
I’m not a big Trae Young fan, but there is a pretty meaningful market inefficiency on his points market tonight, and he draws a great home matchup versus the Toronto Raptors, who are playing on the wrong end of a back-to-back set. His points prop is trading at 25.5 in most spots, save Hard Rock, where it’s at 24.5. The over will only cost you the usual juice of -110.
The Raptors have played terrible perimeter defense lately. They have allowed the 11th-most above-the-break 3’s per game over the last 15 (9.8) and the fifth-most over the last seven (10.7). Although point guards haven’t often been the primary beneficiaries of this weakness, Tyrese Haliburton shot 5-for-9 from beyond the arc against them right before the All-Star Break. With Young taking 8.6 above-the-break 3’s per game, he could smash the 24.5 tonight.
Let’s also not forget that the Raptors are playing this one without rest but the Hawks are not. When playing without rest this season, the Raptors are allowing a terrible 121.8 points per game. Their opponents have converted a monstrous 38.7% of all attempts from long distance as well. I’m backing Young to clear the 24.5 and the 30-plus (+210 at Hard Rock).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Trae Young Over 24.5 Points -110 at Hard Rock
James Harden Player Prop
The Los Angeles Clippers and James Harden will face the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. The Clippers just got waxed by the Oklahoma City Thunder last night, and Harden tallied six boards in just 29 minutes of action. He is averaging just 5.1 rebounds per game and only 4.9 when center Ivica Zubac is active. OddsShopper Premium and I agree that there’s an edge on the points market for James Harden today, and our model has an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip this season. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this James Harden under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 5.5 is priced at -110 (52.4%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -123 (55.2%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 5.5 for -144 (59%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: James Harden Under 5.5 Rebounds -110 at DraftKings
Tyrese Maxey Player Prop
Yeah, Tyrese Maxey sold the bag and scored 35 points when we had him staying under 27.5. So what? Fortune favors the bold, and we’re fading him again tonight, this time to stay under the 25.5 versus the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs should be hungry defensively after losing to the Orlando Magic on their home floor last night.
The edge for this Maxey prop comes down to two crucial splits. When playing without Joel Embiid this season, Maxey is shooting a brutal 43/33/81. When playing without rest, he is shooting 40/32/74. These dips in his splits, which are 45/38/86 on the year, could be due to any number of factors that I won’t hazard to unpack.
Tonight’s matchup with the Cavs is a brutal one. Cleveland ranks ninth in points allowed per game to point guards over the last 15 (23.2). The team also ranks second in defensive rating (108.9) and 22nd in pace (98) through that stretch. Maxey scored only 22 points in Cleveland over 42 minutes without Embiid before the All-Star Break.
Concerns about the Cavs’ lack of rest are fair, but they’ve been effectively defensively in these spots, and that argument cuts both ways here. Cleveland allows 109.3 points per game, not far off from their average without rest (110.5). All of Cleveland’s starters except for Darius Garland played fewer than 36 minutes last night, but the 76ers still left Maxey out for 40 despite the blowout game script. The last time he played a game the night after logging 40-plus minutes, he shot 36/25/40 on his way to a paltry 20 points in another game that Embiid missed.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 25.5 Points -108 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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