Oof. We faceplanted with an 0-3 showing last night. That’s all I’ll say about that. My full NBA cards are now sitting at 206-196-10 (+23u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Stephen Curry, Jamal Murray and Paolo Banchero. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Stephen Curry & More
Jamal Murray Player Prop
Tonight’s NBA late slate will feature the Denver Nuggets hosting the New Orleans Pelicans live on ESPN. New Orleans will be back in action tomorrow for a road game against the Dallas Mavericks but Denver won’t play again until Monday. It hasn’t been a major story this season, but New Orleans’ defense is legit. The Pelicans rank seventh in defensive rating on the year and first over the last seven.
Despite the unfavorable scheduling for New Orleans, I’m fading a key part of Denver’s offense: Jamal Murray. His shot profile doesn’t match up well versus New Orleans. Murray takes 7.2 shots per game from either the mid-range or the non-restricted paint. He also takes 5.5 shots from above the break. Those attempts constitute 75.7% of his total shots.
Unfortunately for Murray, New Orleans pretty much shuts all of those zones down. The Pelicans lead the NBA in mid-range shots allowed per game (3.4). They rank ninth in both the non-restricted paint (7.2) and above the break (8.9). They also lead the NBA in shooting percentage allowed from above the break (31.7%). As a result, I don’t expect Murray to have a great game against New Orleans’ stifling defense.
Despite all of these factors, the books are treating it like just another day for Murray: his points prop sits at 23.5, above his season average (20.5), his average at home (19.4) and his average since the beginning of December (22.5). You can buy the under for odds of -120 at BetMGM, which is a steal — Murray has cleared that number just six times in 25 starts this year. If you’re new to BetMGM, make sure to take advantage of their new sign-up offer: get $158 in bonus bets after wagering just $5!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jamal Murray Under 23.5 Points -120 at BetMGM
Paolo Banchero Player Prop
The Orlando Magic will make the cross-state trek to play the Miami Heat tonight. Wing Franz Wagner is still on the shelf for this one due to a right ankle sprain, but center Wendell Carter Jr. is questionable to make his return. The Heat are still without Jimmy Butler — and now both Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry are doubtful — but Bam Adebayo is still available to give Miami a major defensive advantage near the rim, and as a result, I’m fading Paolo Banchero. OddsShopper Premium is with me on this pick, too.
Banchero is in a super high-usage role with Wagner sidelined. He is averaging 28.3 points per game without him this year, but, as we saw versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, usage doesn’t always correspond to production. Banchero scored just 18 points on 22 shot attempts and in 35 minutes in that game.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Paolo Banchero under today because of some market inefficiency. The under 27.5 is priced at only -115 (53.5%) at ESPNBet — which is worse than the true odds of -125 (55.6%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 27.5 priced down at -144 (59%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Paolo Banchero Under 27.5 Points -115 at ESPNBet
Stephen Curry Player Prop
The Golden State Warriors will play at the Chicago Bulls tonight before facing the Milwaukee Bucks on NBA TV tomorrow. This is a great spot to fade Stephen Curry as a scorer: although the Bulls haven’t been good this year, they can defend opposing guards well. Their defensive efficiency has also steadily improved — Chicago ranks second in the metric over the last seven games.
That said, the primary reason I’m fading Curry tonight is Chicago’s pace. The Bulls have been the slowest team in the NBA this year, and they’ve been getting slower. They’re averaging 96.6 possessions per game on the season and 96.5 over the last 15 games.
Chicago’s slow pace has helped them rank seventh in overall points allowed per game (111.7), first in points allowed to point guards (21) and 13th to shooting guards (22.2). With Curry’s points prop trading all the way up at 27.5, I’ve simply got to have something on this under tonight. Curry is averaging only 26.2 points per game this year and 24.9 without Draymond Green.
Curry has stayed under the 27.5 in just 17 of his 35 games this year, but that includes his last three starts. His last three games against the Bulls have all gone poorly, too: Curry recorded 20 points in 34 minutes versus the Bulls last January, 19 in 33 in December 2022, and 19 in 28 in January 2022. I’m thrilled to be getting the under 27.5 at odds of -115 via DraftKings — this wager is trading at -136 on Pinnacle.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Stephen Curry Under 27.5 Points -115 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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