Let’s go! This column went undefeated again, bringing us to a 5-0-1 over the last two days. With some non-article picks that you can find on my Twitter or TikTok, last night brought my full NBA cards to 223-217-12 (+25.4u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Anthony Davis, Dejounte Murray and Tyrese Maxey. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Anthony Davis & More
Anthony Davis Player Prop
The Los Angeles Lakers will play the Brooklyn Nets at home tonight, and both Anthony Davis (probable) and LeBron James (questionable) have received their usual injury designations for the affair but are expected to play. I’m fading Davis in this spot against an increasingly stingy and slow Nets team.
The Nets may rank only 19th in defensive rating this year (116.5), but they’re 24th in pace (98.5) and second in points allowed in the paint per game (45.8). Those numbers have improved lately. Over the last seven, Brooklyn ranks ninth (113.3), 27th (96.1) and third (42.3), respectively.
The Nets’ interior defense has allowed the third-fewest makes in the non-restricted paint (6.4) on the second-lowest conversion rate (39.4%). Davis takes most of his interior looks in the restricted area, but a surprisingly high 31.4% of his field goals come in the non-restricted paint.
The Nets have also allowed the fourth-fewest points per game to power forwards (21.7) and the ninth-fewest to centers (21.5) this year. Davis will still get some dunks and layups, but the Nets should reduce his overall offensive output.
Davis’ points prop is trading at 26.5 in most spots. That’s frustrating for our purposes because 27 is a key number for the big man. Davis has scored exactly 27 points five times this year (12.5%). I’m teasing this one up to 27.5 to get over that number, and it’ll only cost us an extra three percentage points of implied probability. Since Davis has landed on 27 in 12 games over the last three seasons (8.8%), it should probably be worth slightly more. I’m also laddering this to under 22.5, a number Davis has failed to clear 13 times this season (32.5%) and 52 times over the last three years (38.2%) for odds of +190 (34.5%).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Davis Under 27.5 Points -135 at ESPNBet
Tyrese Maxey Player Prop
The Philadelphia 76ers are fresh after two days of rest following their early-week back-to-back, but they’ve got another back-to-back scheduled in this spot, with games against the Orlando Magic tonight and the Charlotte Hornets tomorrow. Tyrese Maxey stands out as a sharp player to fade in this spot before Joel Embiid potentially gets the day off, especially against a slow and stingy Magic team. I’m fading him on the assist markets. OddsShopper Premium recommends doing the same.
Orlando’s defense deserves a load of credit. The Magic rank third in defensive rating this year (111.1) and fourth over the last seven games (110.7). They have allowed the fewest assists per game to all positions (23.7) and the fourth-fewest to point guards (7.7). Pair their efficiency with the third-slowest pace over the last seven (95.9) and you’ve got a recipe for unders.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Tyrese Maxey under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 6.5 is priced at only +106 (48.5%) at Caesars — which is worse than the true odds of -102 (50.5%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 6.5 for -114 (53.3%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 6.5 Assists +106 at Caesars
Dejounte Murray Player Prop
Dejounte Murray will get the opportunity to run point for the Atlanta Hawks tonight with Trae Young sidelined. Unfortunately, that likely means the majority of Miami’s defensive attention will be focused on him, which means we’re fading him as a scorer. In nine games with the Hawks without Young, Murray is averaging 25.4 points with a median of exactly 25.
This year, Murray has been more of a passer than a scorer without Young. He obliterated the Pistons for 32 points in November but also tallied 10 assists. He then only scored 20 points against the 76ers in December while dishing nine assists. With Miami’s defense and pace more similar to Philadelphia’s than Detroit’s, a lower-scoring game for Murray should be in the cards.
Miami’s defense hasn’t been perfect this year, but the unit still ranks a steady 10th in defensive rating (113), and, when paired with the second-slowest pace (97.8), they’re a great team for unders. The Heat have even improved to sixth (111.7) and 30th (95.1) over the last seven. Through those seven games, they rank eighth in points allowed per game to point guards (21.2).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Dejounte Murray Under 24.5 Points -113 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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