Yesterday’s 3-0 performance in this column brought us to 9-3 on the week, and because of some non-article picks you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards are now sitting at 253-233-12 (+31.7u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Victor Wembanyama, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Damian Lillard. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Victor Wembanyama & More
Jaren Jackson Jr. Player Prop
The Memphis Grizzlies have been leaning on Jaren Jackson Jr. with Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart and Ja Morant all out, and he hasn’t been able to produce at a game-changing clip. Jackson is averaging just 24.4 points per game over his last five starts while shooting an inefficient 42/26/80. While I would usually suspect him to benefit from regression, Memphis’ depth issues have allowed opposing defenses to lock in on him.
Jackson draws a tough matchup versus the Orlando Magic tonight. This year, the Magic rank fifth in defensive rating (111.7) and 20th in pace (98.7). They also rank second in points allowed per game to power forwards (21.6). Although the last few games haven’t been kind to them, their defense remains a strength. Orlando ranks 12th in defensive rating (114.9), 30th in pace (93) and second in points allowed per game to power forwards (15.5) over the last seven.
The Magic also come into this game quite fresh because they last played on Monday. They only played once last weekend, also on Friday, as well. The rest has given the Magic a chance to get healthy, and they should be able to limit Jackson tonight — at least relative to his lofty points prop (26.5).
Jackson has beaten the 26.5 in just two of his last five games, all of which were played without Morant, Smart and Bane. He scored a miserable 15 points against the Miami Heat on Wednesday despite attempting 21 field goals. I expect Jackson’s struggles to continue in this matchup against another slow-paced, defensively efficient team.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 26.5 Points -110 at DraftKings
Damian Lillard Player Prop
The Milwaukee Bucks will host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, which makes it a good spot to fade Damian Lillard on the assist markets. Although the tumult in Milwaukee makes using their players’ recent production a bit shakier than usual, this under remains a sharp play. Lillard has played the Cavs three times since joining the Bucks and has yet to tally six assists — let alone the seven he needs to go over this number — against them. I’m fading him as a passer tonight, and OddsShopper Premium recommends doing the same.
The Cavaliers may not be as good of a defensive squad as they were last year, but they haven’t let opposing point guards make easy plays. Cleveland leads the NBA in assists allowed per game to point guards (7.5) and ranks second over the last seven (5.7). Cleveland has allowed the second-fewest overall assists per game this year, too (24.1).
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Damian Lillard under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 6.5 is priced at only -130 (56.5%) at bet365 — which is worse than the true odds of -142 (58.7%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 6.5 for -161 (61.7%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Damian Lillard Under 6.5 Assists -130 at bet365
Victor Wembanyama Player Prop
If you’re searching for a sharp over to bet tonight, look no further than Victor Wembanyama. The 7-foot-4 rookie will take on the undersized and inefficient Portland Trail Blazers this evening, and we can expect some major contributions from him in the block department.
When Wembanyama last played the Blazers, he tallied a monstrous seven blocks, and it only took him 24 minutes to do so. Portland has struggled with blocks all season: the Trail Blazers rank 28th in both blocks allowed per game to centers (3.3) and overall blocks allowed (6.3).
Wembanyama’s minutes are a concern, but his defensive ability is not. He is averaging 3.2 blocks per game with a median of 3, tallying three or more blocks in 21 of his 38 appearances (55%) and 12 of his 19 home games (63.2%).
Despite Wembanyama’s demonstrated shot-blocking ability, the books are taking action on his blocks prop at 2.5 tonight!
While the over 2.5 will cost you a pretty penny at -150 (60%) on ESPNBet, that still isn’t efficient for a matchup like this one. I would have set the line at 3.5, a number Wembanyama has cleared in 18 of his 38 appearances (47.3%) and 10 of his 19 home games (52.6%). ESPNBet is also taking action on the 3.5 for odds of +145 (40.8%), so I recommend you pounce on both of these lines for a sharp ladder bet.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 Blocks -150 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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