The tough sledding continues — yesterday’s article went 1-2 (thank you, Nikola Jokic, for busting our under by the hook with less than two minutes to go). Still, my full NBA cards are 185-163-10 (+31.8u) on the year, so the numbers suggest we should bounce back — eventually. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Alperen Sengün, Jalen Johnson and Jusuf Nurkic. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Alperen Sengün & More
Jalen Johnson Player Prop
The Atlanta Hawks will play the Indiana Pacers tonight in a battle between two of the NBA’s fastest-paced (and worst defensively rated) teams. The total for this one sits at a lofty 262. It makes sense — when these teams met in late November, they combined for a monstrous 309 points in regulation.
Power forward Jalen Johnson scored 17 points over 33 minutes in that game. However, we’re backing him to beat the 17.5 tonight. Johnson has scored 18 or more points in just seven of his 19 appearances, but he has a few factors working in his favor tonight. For one, fellow wing De’Andre Hunter is out, and when Hunter sits, Johnson is averaging 19.5 points per game with a 20% usage rate.
We’re also backing Hunter because of Indiana’s defensive woes. On a per-game basis, the Pacers allow the second-most made field goals per game in the restricted area (21.2) and the most points in the paint (61.3). That corresponds to the most points allowed per game to power forwards on the year (28.8) and over the last 15 games (32). Johnson has spent 98% of his minutes this year at the four.
I don’t love the fact Johnson’s points prop is trading at a lofty 17.5, but that’s still a bit too low for this matchup. Johnson exploded for 28 points in 29 minutes against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday, the fourth game Hunter has missed all season, and he now gets a far more favorable matchup versus the Pacers. Look for him to put up similar numbers tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Johnson Over 17.5 Points -125 at ESPNBet
Jusuf Nurkic Player Prop
The Phoenix Suns will host the Miami Heat tonight. The injury report for this game is a bit sketchy — Jimmy Butler is out for Miami, and both Eric Gordon and Kevin Durant are questionable for Phoenix. But even without Butler, Miami plays a stifling brand of defense that allows little production either in the paint or to opposing centers, so we’re fading Jusuf Nurkic in this spot. Nurkic has cleared the 13.5-point mark in 50% of his appearances this year but is averaging only 12.7 points per game. I don’t expect an above-average showing from Nurkic tonight, and OddsShopper Premium doesn’t, either.
Miami’s defense has allowed the second-fewest points per game to centers both this year (19.4) and over the last 15 games (19.2). Since the 2018-19 season, Nurkic has cleared the 13.5 in just two of seven games against Miami.
Scheduling and matchup aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Jusuf Nurkic under today because of the market inefficiency. The under 13.5 is priced at only +105 (48.8%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -109 (51%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 13.5 priced down at -127 (56%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off! If you’re skeptical of their profitability, check out the testimonials from readers like you below!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jusuf Nurkic Under 13.5 Points +105 at DraftKings
Alperen Sengün Player Prop
The Houston Rockets will host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a battle between two the NBA’s best defensive teams. The Rockets rank fourth in defensive rating (110.9) while the Timberwolves rank first (108.7). These squads’ slow paces are also worth knowing: Houston ranks 27th while Minnesota ranks 20th.
These teams have excelled at shutting down the paint. On a per-game basis, Minnesota ranks fourth in made field goals allowed in the restricted area (15.6), slightly behind third-ranked Houston (15.3). Minnesota also ranks seventh in points allowed in the paint (47), right behind sixth-ranked Houston (46.3).
Limiting production in the interior affects centers substantially. This year, Minnesota has allowed the 10th-fewest points per game to the position (21.8). Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest (21.1). There is an argument for fading both Rudy Gobert and Alperen Sengün, but I’m putting my action down on the latter big man. Gobert’s point total is trading at a measly 12.5, while Sengün’s sits at a lofty 22.5.
Sengün clocks in at odds of -115 to stay under the 22.5 via FanDuel. The emerging star has never broken 21 against Gobert across six career meetings. He scored 18 and 21 against Gobert’s Timberwolves last season. Sengün is averaging only 21.5 points per game and 20.4 points per game at home, where this one will be played. With Sengün taking 42.2% of his shots in the restricted area, I’m backing Minnesota’s defense to limit him — especially with the Rockets scheduled to be back in action tomorrow.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Alperen Sengün Under 22.5 Points -115 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
