After a shaky start to the week for this column, we scored a 2-0 sweep last night on one of the smallest NBA slates of the season. I’m pumped to have finally regained some momentum, so let’s roll it forward into tonight’s action — with the help of OddsShopper Premium, I’m net up on the week. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Aaron Gordon and Deandre Ayton.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Deandre Ayton & More
Deandre Ayton Player Prop
I was thrilled to see this Deandre Ayton player prop popping at the top of OddsShopper Premium’s list of bets today because I was planning to fade him anyway. Ayton and the Portland Trail Blazers draw a tough matchup versus the Miami Heat, who are notoriously stingy with regards to opposing centers. Miami ranks third in points allowed (20.1), 14th in rebounds allowed (14.4) and first in assists allowed (3.4) on a per-game basis to the position this season.
Ayton’s points, rebounds and assists (PRA) prop is trading at 32.5 today, and the under will only cost you -115 at Hard Rock and -120 at BetMGM. Pinnacle, a high-limit, sharp sportsbook, lists the same bet for a much stingier price of -163. Most other public books are charging -135 or worse for this bet, so make sure to buy it at Hard Rock or BetMGM to maximize your returns.
Ayton is averaging only 28.5 PRA per game this season, so we’re getting this bet at a whopping four PRA below his season average. While it’s true that he has taken major strides since the All-Star Break, after which he has averaged 37.9 PRA per game, he’s benefited from lining up against plenty of soft defenses, including the Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks.
Ayton last played the Heat on February 27, and they held him to 12 points, 10 rebounds and two assists in only 19 minutes of action. That total of 24 PRA is well under this line, and while his rate of 1.25 PRA per minute is concerning, expect the Heat to adjust and make sure he contributes less tonight. The Heat have allowed Ayton to clear this total in just three of his 10 starts against them.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Deandre Ayton Under 32.5 PRA -115 at Hard Rock
Aaron Gordon Player Prop
The Denver Nuggets will square off with the Minnesota Timberwolves in a pivotal Western Conference battle on Friday. The Nuggets will host this one, which helps, and both Anthony Edwards (questionable) and Rudy Gobert (questionable) are on the injury report. Still, we’re fading power forward Aaron Gordon because we’re beating the market by too much not to do so.
Aaron Gordon is averaging 13.9 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists this season, good for 23.7 PRA per game. He’s trading at odds of -115 to stay under 25.5 at Hard Rock, so we’ve got to play the under in this spot, especially with Gobert possibly in the game. Gordon has averaged only 13.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists (23.1 PRA) versus Gobert across 13 meetings. Those numbers tick up slightly to 15, 6.8 and 4 (25.8) since he joined the Nuggets, but they fall to 13.3, 7 and 5.3 (25.6) since Gobert joined the Timberwolves.
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. It pulls in all the odds from across the market; adjusts for factors such as book sharpness, hold and more; and uses that information to produce a the true odds of each bet. When we see a bet trading for longer odds than the true odds, we pounce. That’s what we see with this Gordon bet today:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Aaron Gordon Under 25.5 PRA -115 at Hard Rock
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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