Yesterday brought us yet another 1-1 split, bringing us to a good but not great 5-3 on the week. Luka Doncic finally bounced back from beyond the arc, but at least we sold high and cashed an under for Jaylen Brown. I’ve dug up a pair of NBA player props with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools for tonight’s slate, so, without further delay let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Tyrese Haliburton & More
Pascal Siakam Player Prop
I’m not a big fan of Pascal Siakam, but I recognize a good buy low spot when I see one. Siakam had to deal with Mitchell Robinson in Game 1 and OG Anunoby in Games 1 and 2. Both players are now out with injuries. The Knicks have some capable reserves like Precious Achiuwa and Alec Burks, but they’re meaningful downgrades.
In the regular season, the Knicks’ defense was leagues better with Anunoby on the floor than without him. New York posted an elite 100.9 defensive rating compared to a less impressive 115 (-14.1) with him off it. The opposite effect was true of Achiuwa — New York’s defensive rating with him (111.1) was worse than without (108.5). The same was true of Burks (115.2 to 111.3).
I don’t expect New York’s defense to completely implode, but with Anunoby and Robinson now shelved and Jalen Brunson questionable with an injury of his own, it’s not a good spot for Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks. They’re 7.5-point road dogs for this matchup largely because of the injury news.
Anyway — we’re backing Siakam in this spot because Anunoby was his primary defender for much of the early part of the series. It’s been six-straight playoff games since we saw Siakam clear the 20.5-point mark, but he began the postseason with a pair of 35-plus point performances, and his brutal shooting splits through Game 2 (44/17/33) should regress to his regular-season mean with Indiana (55/39/70).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 Points -115 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Pascal Siakam points live odds page!
Tyrese Haliburton Player Prop
Even though this spot is a great one for the Pacers, that doesn’t mean all players are in great spots to put up numbers in all categories. Tyrese Haliburton, who averaged 3.9 rebounds in the regular season but is averaging 5.4 in the playoffs, is one such example. Haliburton recorded six boards on 10 chances in Game 2 after recording just two on four in Game 1.
Haliburton’s rebounding prop is now trading at 4.5 with the juice stacked on the under at every book, but it’s an open question as to how much juice they’re stacking on it. Haliburton’s under will only cost you -122 at DraftKings, which our NBA +EV betting tools reveal is beating the market by enough to give us serious positive expected value (+EV):
Haliburton’s under is in the -125 to -150 range at most public books, so the number at DraftKings is a bit of an exception. Furthermore, Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, lists this same wager for odds of -152, far steeper than what we’re getting at public books.
The model calculates that the true odds (a breakeven price) of this wager are -132. It reaches that estimate by indexing the odds across the sports betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; then using that information to generate those true odds.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Under 4.5 Rebounds -122 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, see our Tyrese Haliburton rebounds live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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