Huge! We went 2-0 again yesterday, bringing us to 23-9 on all NBA player props over the last three weeks and 5-1 during the conference finals. Yes, that’s a win rate of 72%. This evening’s Western Conference Finals matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks brings us two NBA player props that have value, which I’ve identified with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools. Let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Luka Doncic and P.J. Washington. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Luka Doncic & More
Luka Doncic Player Prop
After a slow start to the postseason, the Dallas Mavericks have steadily been getting more out of Luka Doncic. He racked up 33 points and six rebounds in Game 1. Importantly, though, Doncic did so on splits of 46/30/86 and on 11 rebound chances.
Doncic’s solid shooting splits from Game 1 can’t be expected again in Game 2. Remember, Minnesota led the NBA in defensive rating this year. Doncic posted splits of 49/38/79 in the regular season but has a line of 43/30/79 in the postseason as he navigates an increased workload and several injuries.
Likewise, Doncic nabbed six boards on 11 chances, good for a conversion rate of 54.5%. In the regular season he averaged 9.2 rebounds on 14.1 chances, but that dropped to his exact Game 1 statline when facing the Timberwolves: six rebounds per game on 11 chances, yet Doncic’s rebounds prop is trading at 8.5 for Game 2.
We can buy Doncic to stay under 38.5 points and rebounds for -138 at FanDuel, a number he has cleared in six of his last 10 — but by the hook in four of those games. Doncic has just one playoff game with more than 42 points and rebounds, and that was all the way back in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Clippers.
While getting the extra point or board at FanDuel is nice, I’d rather buy the under 37.5 for -105 at DraftKings.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Under 37.5 Points & Rebounds -105 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Luka Doncic points and rebounds live odds page!
P.J. Washington Player Prop
This pick for P.J. Washington is inversely correlated with the above Luka Doncic pick, so if you’re looking to ride my hot streak with a same-game parlay, don’t. We’re fading P.J. Washington on the glass for a far-too-friendly number, but the odds of neither Washington nor Doncic having a good game on the glass aren’t that high.
Washington tallied seven boards on 13 chances in Game 1. He also averaged seven boards on 10 chances against the Timberwolves in the regular season, but both of those games came with the Charlotte Hornets. Washington is averaging only 4.4 rebounds per game against Rudy Gobert in regular-season games for this career.
Our NBA player prop betting model recommends fading Washington as a rebounder. He is trading at +130 on DraftKings to stay under 5.5 boards, but most other public books have this bet trading between +115 and +105. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging +107 for it, so we know this wager has plenty of positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s NBA +EV betting tools estimate that this bet should be priced at +119, slightly longer than the number at DraftKings. The +126 at Caesars also has +EV, just not as much. The under 5.5 doesn’t have +EV at any other book due to the prices they’re charging.
That estimate is called the bet’s true odds (a breakeven price). The tools reach that conclusion by indexing the odds from across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and using that information to generate an estimate.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: P.J. Washington Under 5.5 Rebounds +130 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, see our P.J. Washington rebounds live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
