Yesterday’s article scored a clean 2-0 sweep, cashing unders for Khris Middleton and Myles Turner (we also hit Pacers -6, too). So what are we getting action on tonight? With the Los Angeles Clippers and Orlando Magic both in need of a win, there’s plenty on the line. Still, the Jarrett Allen questionable tag means I’m concentrating on the Clippers-Mavericks game for both NBA player props that I’ve dug up with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools. Let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for James Harden & More
James Harden Player Prop
Tonight could be our last chance to face James Harden until October, and if you’ve read this column all season, you know that’s not an opportunity I’m going to pass up. While Harden has been electric at points this series, he has also disappeared for long stretches, including his seven-point performance in Game 5. While some may want to back him for a rebound showing, I’m not interested.
Harden’s points prop is trading at 20.5 on FanDuel, which may seem fair given his series average of 22.2 points per game, but let’s talk about what it’s taken for him to get there. Harden’s shooting splits of 48/44/92 are impressive, but considering he shot 43/38/88 in the regular season (often with Kawhi Leonard drawing defensive attention away, too), they’re also probably unsustainable.
We’re back in Dallas for this one, and it’s the best chance Luka Doncic and friends will have to close out the series. Winning this game will begin and end with stifling Harden and Paul George, which the Mavs mostly did in Game 5. Harden only logged two uncontested field goal attempts in that contest after averaging seven per game in Games 1 through 4.
NBA Player Prop Pick: James Harden Under 20.5 Points -132 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our James Harden points live odds page!
Kyrie Irving Player Prop
Our NBA +EV betting tools recommend getting action on this Kyrie Irving player prop as well tonight. Irving is trading at odds of +130 at DraftKings to stay under 4.5 assists, which he did in Games 1 and 2 but not 3, 4 or 5. That number is a bit high for the 8.8 potential assist Irving has averaged in the playoffs, as he must convert over 50%. But while DraftKings has this for +130, most other books don’t, so we’re getting loads of positive expected value (+EV) in this spot:
The +130 at DraftKings is beating literally every other public book by a wide margin. Nowhere else is this bet longer than +125, and you’re hard-pressed to find it longer than +115. The consensus appears to be in the +112 to +106 range. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it for +105.
The model works by taking in the odds from across the market; factoring in things like hold, book sharpness and more; then projecting a breakeven price (called “true odds“) with that information. When you see a bet trading for a price longer than its true odds, it has +EV.
What can be difficult about using a +EV approach in sports gambling is that volume is the key. You’re grinding out slight edges, which means you need a large sample to be profitable because not every bet will win. While our backtested simulations prove this strategy is a profitable one, you can’t let iffy early returns discourage you.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyrie Irving Under 4.5 Assists +130 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, see our Kyrie Irving assists live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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