Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Nov. 24

Nikola Jokic Player Prop

Nikola Jokic erupted against the Houston Rockets earlier in the year for a season-best 36-point performance on shooting splits of 50/33/100. He also notched 21 rebounds and 11 assists in the contest while playing 38 minutes. But despite those impressive numbers, I’m excited about the opportunity to fade Jokic tonight, especially in the points column.

Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are on the road in this spot, and that usually spells disaster for Jokic’s scoring. This year, Jokic is averaging 31.3 points per game at home but only 24.3 points per game on the road. He averaged 24.8 points per game at home to 24.2 points per game on the road last year. Although Jokic’s last game against Houston was also on the road, it is just one of his two road starts with 30-plus points across an eight-game sample.

This may come as a surprise to you, but the Rockets have played excellent defense under new head coach Ime Udoka. The Rockets rank fourth in defensive rating, which, when paired with their third-slowest pace, makes it difficult for opposing players to go off against them. Houston is also allowing the fewest points per game to centers (17.9), largely because of an effective interior defense that, on a per-game basis, has allowed the third-fewest made shots in the restricted area (14.1) and the third-fewest points in the paint (49.4).

Domantas Sabonis Player Prop

The Sacramento Kings will take on Rudy Gobert and the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, with help from Kyle Anderson and Naz Reid, have formed a dominant interior defense in Minnesota that has allowed the third-fewest points per game to centers (18.9) and the fourth-fewest made shots per game in the restricted area (14.1).

In addition to the unfavorable matchup for Sabonis, our NBA betting tools want action on this Domantas Sabonis prop today as well because of the pricing disparity. The -120 (54.6%) on bet365 is worse than the true odds for this wager of -135 (57.4%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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NBA Player Prop Pick: Domantas Sabonis Under 19.5 Points -120 at bet365

Kyle Kuzma Player Prop

The Washington Wizards will visit the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Milwaukee could be without superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is questionable with an illness, but we’re fading Kyle Kuzma regardless of Giannis’ availability. It’ll be that much better for us if Giannis ends up playing, too.

The Bucks have some major defensive flaws, especially on the perimeter, but they have a much more respectable interior defense. They have allowed the 12th-fewest made shots per game in the restricted area (16.1), which is where Kuzma records 8.4 of his 23.7 points per game.

We’re fading Kuzma on the points, rebounds and assists (PRA) market, and not just on the points market, for two other reasons. First, Kuzma and the Wizards are on the front end of a back-to-back set with their next game coming against the Atlanta Hawks. If the Wizards get down early, look for them to turn their focus to Atlanta, limiting Kuzma’s minutes.

Second, the market isn’t efficient on this Kuzma prop. You’ll find the under 34.5 priced at -147 at Pinnacle, a sharp book, but at the far more exploitable price of -125 at FanDuel. The total ticked up by one after the announcement that Giannis was questionable, so if he plays, it could tick back down as well.

NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Kuzma Under 34.5 PRA -125 at FanDuel