Well, after an insane 12-3 run in the NBA Conference Finals, we’re down to 0-2 in the NBA Finals. Kristaps Porzingis came off the bench but still went over 16.5 points. P.J. Washington couldn’t hit a triple but still scored 14 points. That’s a brutal way to lose ’em, so let’s see if we can bounce back with the two NBA player prop picks I’ve found with the help of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools for Mavericks-Celtics Game 2.
Use our NBA betting model for more bets — or read our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Mavericks-Celtics Game 2
Daniel Gafford Player Prop
Yes, this series has a ton of star power with Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Kyrie Irving and Jaylen Brown on the floor. Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White all belong in that conversation, too. But we’re playing this Daniel Gafford under instead of any of their overs because that’s how to be profitable over the long term on NBA player props.
Another key tip for profitable NBA player prop betting: Don’t read too much into trends. Sure, Daniel Gafford has gone over 12.5 points and rebounds in eight of his last 10 games. Who cares? He saw less than five minutes of playing time in the second half of Game 1. He is borderline unplayable versus Boston.
Gafford’s Game 1 saw him tally eight points on three dunks and two free-throws to go with three rebounds. He was also a -10 in less than 15 minutes on the floor. Head coach Jason Kidd hasn’t been afraid to pivot away from the limited center, especially now that Maxi Kleber is back.
Gafford just doesn’t give the Mavericks what they need to beat the Celtics: offensive and defensive versatility. In the 2:42 he spent covering Al Horford, the veteran big man shot 2-for-3 with five points while the Celtics racked up 12 as a team. Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis and Jaylen Brown all shot 1-for-1 against Gafford.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Daniel Gafford Under 12.5 Points & Rebounds -105 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Daniel Gafford points and rebounds live odds page!
Jaylen Brown Player Prop
Let’s turn to what our NBA player prop betting model advises targeting for Mavericks-Celtics Game 2. Although Jason Kidd just called Jaylen Brown Boston’s best player (bait much?), we’re going to fade him for this one. Brown racked up 22 points, six rebounds and two assists in Game 1, or 30 PRA. His PRA prop for Game 2? It’s 32.5.
The under for this Jaylen Brown prop only has value in a few spots. You can buy it for +102 at BetRivers, UniBet and SugarHouse, which is an absolute steal — most public books have this one priced between -104 and -125. Both the +102 and the -104 at FanDuel are trading with the most positive expected value (+EV):
The tools work by indexing the odds across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a fair market price (called true odds) for each wager. If a bet is trading for odds longer than its true odds, it’s time to pounce! That’s what we’re seeing with this bet.
Our tools have found 1,239 +EV PRA bets this year with (a) at least 12 hours before game start and (b) an OS Rating of 2 or better, like this bet. A monstrous 679 of those bets were winners, good for a 6.8% ROI. Of those 679, 124 were at FanDuel, good for a 6.7% ROI.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaylen Brown Under 32.5 PRA +102 at BetRivers
For the best price currently available, see our Jaylen Brown PRA live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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