We’ve been on an absolute heater in this column. Our picks for the NBA in-season tournament final were perfect: Anthony Davis climbed his points ladder up to 40 and Myles Turner stayed under his PRA line by more than 10, fouling out early as we anticipated. My full NBA cards are now up to 109-84-3 (+31.4u) on the year, and if you want access to them in real time, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Tonight, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Russell Westbrook, Fred VanVleet and Jarrett Allen. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Fred VanVleet & More
Fred VanVleet Player Prop
The San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets will square off for the second time this year. These teams last met in late October, with the two squads tallying 222 points in regulation and another 26 in overtime. Fred VanVleet notched a whopping 21 points in regulation, adding another three in overtime, and tied with Jalen Green for the team lead in field goal attempts (20). I expect big things from him again tonight.
The Spurs have struggled to stop what VanVleet does well. This year, San Antonio has allowed 10.3 above-the-break 3-pointers per game, third-most in the NBA. They have also allowed the ninth-most mid-range shots per game (4.6). VanVleet leads the Rockets in above-the-break 3-pointers made (2.7) and attempted (7.2) per game. He also ranks second in mid-range shots made (0.8) and attempted (1.9) per game.
VanVleet is averaging only 16.7 points per game, but with him fresh and not playing again until Wednesday, I’m backing him for an above-average night. The books have set his points total to 17.5 with the juice slightly favoring the over, which I can stomach for a single-unit wager. Although VanVleet has cleared this number eight times in 18 starts, I’m unperturbed — he is also averaging 24.8 points per game against the Spurs since the 2021-22 season, clearing the 17.5 in three of four appearances.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Fred VanVleet Over 17.5 Points -120 at ESPNBet
Jarrett Allen Player Prop
The Cleveland Cavaliers will visit the Orlando Magic tonight before visiting the Boston Celtics tomorrow. They’re coming into this with some time off, but the fact they’ll play three games in four days (they play the Celtics again on Thursday) is somewhat of a cause for concern. As a result, OddsShopper Premium and I are fading Jarrett Allen here. Allen is averaging only 8.3 rebounds per game. Although he tallied 11 boards against the Magic last week, he also struggled with fouls and logged just 19 minutes.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Jarrett Allen under today entirely because of the pricing disparity. The -130 (56.5%) on SuperBook (and the -135 (57.5%) on ESPNBet) are worse than the true odds for this wager of -148 (59.7%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 9.5 priced at -112 (52.8%), which is a stronger sign about the under’s value. OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off! If you’re worried about the cost, just check out the testimonials from our subscribers below.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jarrett Allen Under 10.5 Rebounds -130 at SuperBook
Russell Westbrook Player Prop
I usually like to play unders when teams are on back-to-back sets, but I’m not doing that with this Russell Westbrook pick. The Los Angeles Clippers will host the Portland Trail Blazers before hosting the Sacramento Kings tomorrow night, and I suspect we’ll see some big minutes from the bench unit.
The books are taking action on Russell Westbrook to record over 2.5 assists at odds of -160 (61.5%). I’m laddering this one through 3.5 to 4.5 because that is just too low. Since transitioning to a bench role, Westbrook is still averaging 4.2 assists per game, largely because of big performances in blowouts.
The Clippers are a double-digit favorite tonight. When the Clippers win by double digits and Westbrook comes off the bench, he averages 5.8 assists per game, clearing even the 4.5 in three of four games.
We’re not just picking Westbrook because of outcome-based splits — we’re also trusting him because of the matchup. The Trail Blazers allowed Russ to tally 13 assists in the season opener. Since 2021-22, when he was coming off the bench for the Los Angeles Lakers, Westbrook has averaged 8.3 assists per game against the Blazers, clearing the 2.5 and 3.5 in every game and the 4.5 in all but one. Wager enough on the over 2.5 to secure a half-unit return, then consider wagering another half-unit between the 3.5 and 4.5.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Russell Westbrook Over 2.5 Assists -160 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
