After a shaky start to last week, we wrapped things up in this column with a 3-0 sweep, even climbing a Donovan Mitchell assists ladder all the way up to 10 for +800. My full NBA cards now sit at 134-109-3 (+33.5u) on the year. If you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for James Harden, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaren Jackson Jr.. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for James Harden & More
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop
The Memphis Grizzlies are off to a profoundly disappointing start without Ja Morant this season. However, one silver lining for them is that their interior defense looked good. They have permitted the fewest points in the paint per game on the year (42.7) and through the last seven games (44.9).
Memphis’ solid paint defense will make like difficult for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Although he can score from anywhere on the floor, 61.8% of his field goal attempts have been launched from the paint. Memphis’ defensive vulnerabilities lie on the perimeter, where they cough up 14.4 3-pointers per game — but SGA is far from OKC’s most effective long-range option.
The Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves in a decent spot scheduling-wise, as they last played on Saturday and won’t play again until Thursday, so we could see more minutes from their starters than usual.
OKC’s solid scheduling spot is also offset by Memphis’ bad scheduling spot — the Grizz are on the front end of a back-to-back set. They’re also trading as double-digit underdogs, and a blowout may end SGA’s night early.
If you’re not sold on this SGA under, note that you can buy him to stay under 31.5 for odds of -113 on FanDuel, but you’ll find the under 30.5 trading at -105 on Pinnacle, a sharp book. I bought him to stay under the 31.5 number and the 27.5 for odds of +150 at ESPNBet. The veteran guard averages only 30.7 points per game on the year and only 30.2 points per game at home.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 Points -113 at FanDuel
James Harden Player Prop
The Los Angeles Clippers will visit the fast-paced Indiana Pacers this evening. This marks Indiana’s fourth game in three days. Superstar guard Tyrese Haliburton missed one of those contests and is questionable again tonight. I don’t have a great read on his availability, but the Clippers are trading as slight road favorites and the books haven’t started taking action on player props for the Pacers, so there is a decent chance he sits. The Pacers are 1-2 without Haliburton. They own a point differential of -54 in those contests. With a blowout game script within our range of outcomes, I can’t turn down this plus-money under for James Harden, and OddsShopper Premium can’t, either.
Harden averages only 7.5 assists per game. He has tallied nine or more assists in just eight of his 20 appearances for the Clippers, and all but two of those games were at home. Harden averages a dreadful 6.4 assists per game on the road as well. And for all the talk of Indiana’s defensive struggles, the Pacers allow the 12th-fewest assists per game (25.6) and the sixth-fewest at home (24).
Statistics and scheduling aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this James Harden under today because of the pricing disparity. The +105 (48.8%) at DraftKings for the under 8.5 is worse than the true odds for this wager of -111 (52.6%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under priced down at -128 (56.1%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: James Harden Under 8.5 Assists +120 at DraftKings
Jaren Jackson Jr. Player Prop
If you wanted an over, that’s too bad — I’ve got yet another under for tonight’s card. We’re circling back to the Memphis Grizzlies with this one. Because they’ll have to play the New Orleans Pelicans tomorrow, we could see reduced minutes for some of Memphis’ big names, including Jaren Jackson Jr. He should prove to be a sharp fade tonight like SGA.
Jackson has been exceptional lately. He has gone for 35-plus points in three of his last six games, even eclipsing the 40-point mark twice. However, he stayed under the 24.5 — which is where his points prop is now trading — in the other three. Jackson is averaging only 21.8 points per game this year. He has scored 25 or more just eight times.
In addition to the scheduling issues for Memphis, Oklahoma City also makes a tough opponent for Jackson. The Thunder allow the seventh-fewest made shots per game in the restricted area (15.9) and the ninth-fewest in the non-restricted paint (7). Jackson takes 66.5% of his shots from those two zones.
Getting Jackson at even odds to stay under the 24.5 feels a bit like stealing. Although his usage rate and minutes have increased through the year because of injuries to Marcus Smart and Bismack Biyombo, his propensity for foul trouble and shaky accuracy from long range usually make him a profitable fade against teams with decent frontcourt defenses. It helps that Oklahoma City ranks 11th in opponent fouls per game (20.3).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 24.5 Points +100 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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