We scored a 3-0 sweep when I last wrote this column on Saturday, cashing tickets on Paolo Banchero, Jonathan Isaac and Anthony Edwards. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for De’Aaron Fox, Cade Cunningham and Precious Achiuwa. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +21u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for De’Aaron Fox & More
De’Aaron Fox Player Prop
The Sacramento Kings have a date with the Miami Heat tonight. These contests usually don’t go well for point guard De’Aaron Fox, who is averaging 18 points per game against them on embarrassing shooting splits (33/7/89) over their last three meetings. Fox is also playing this one without rest. He averages 25 points per game with below-average shooting splits without rest this year (44/31/77).
The Heat come into this one well-rested because they haven’t played since Friday. When the Heat have a leg up in rest, their games are 8-4 to the under; when the Kings play without rest, their games are 5-3 to the under.
The Heat are known for locking down their opponents’ top-scoring options, and, over the last 15 games, they have allowed the third-fewest points in the paint per tilt (46.1) and the seventh-fewest above-the-break 3’s per tilt (8.5). Fox takes 50% of his shots in the paint and 32% from above the break.
I bought Fox to stay under the 24.5-point mark for -115 at Fanatics. Fox has done so in his last three games versus the Heat — in fact, he even stayed under the 20-point mark in each of those contests. It’s possible that he finally figures something out versus this defense, but the combination of the lack of rest and Miami’s recent dominance against him point to value on the under.
NBA Player Prop Pick: De’Aaron Fox Under 24.5 Points -115 at Fanatics
Cade Cunningham Player Prop
The Detroit Pistons are not good. They’ll visit the New York Knicks tonight in what the books expect to be yet another loss. With New York’s solid defense and incredibly slow pace, OddsShopper Premium and I agree that there’s an edge on the player prop markets for Cade Cunningham today, and our model has an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip this season. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Cade Cunningham under today due to an obvious market inefficiency. The under 21.5 points is priced at -120 (54.5%) at PointsBet and Hard Rock, which is worse than the true odds of -131 (56.7%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 21.5 for -161 (61.7%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Cade Cunningham Under 21.5 Points -120 at Hard Rock
Precious Achiuwa Player Prop
We’re doubling down on tonight’s Pistons-Knicks game. I want the over for Precious Achiuwa in the steals and blocks (“stocks”) prop market. Achiuwa has steadily worked his way into a bigger role in head coach Tom Thibodeau’s rotation, averaging just under 40 minutes over his last 15 games. With Achiuwa also averaging 2.5 stocks per game through that sample, he stands out as a sharp bet tonight.
The Detroit Pistons allow the fourth-most blocks (6.2) and the most steals (8.8) to their opponents on a per-game basis. Things have gotten much worse since they shipped off Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks. In the six games since the trade, they have allowed the most blocks (8.2) and steals (9.7) per game. We only need Achiuwa to have a slightly above-average night relative to his recent production to cash his over, but the matchup suggests he should be in store for a monster game.
You’ll find Achiuwa trading at odds of +140 to go over the 2.5 at DraftKings. Over his last 12 games, Achiuwa has gone over that number six times. This sample includes eight home games through which Achiuwa averaged 2.9 stocks per game. Achiuwa should be priced much closer to even to go over the 2.5.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Precious Achiuwa Over 2.5 Steals & Blocks +140 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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