We cleaned up on Saturday, sweeping our article plays by hitting unders for Tyrese Maxey, Devin Vassell and Harrison Barnes! As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Domantas Sabonis, Jonas Valanciunas and Jonathan Kuminga. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
Along with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards ticked up to 277-264-16 (+31.4u) on the season last night. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Domantas Sabonis & More
Jonas Valanciunas Player Prop
The New Orleans Pelicans will play the Toronto Raptors tonight, and if I’m the Raptors, I’m worried about this one. Their already thin rotation just had to play a double-overtime game against the Oklahoma City Thunder last night, and all of their starters (save Jakob Poeltl) ended up playing for 40-plus minutes. Scottie Barnes played 48. They now have to make the trek to New Orleans for this one.
While the Pelicans have some injury issues of their own to worry about, as Zion Williamson and Herbert Jones are both questionable, those developments could open up some extra shot attempts for center Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas is primarily an interior scorer, as his shot chart would suggest, but he can still cook from beyond the arc on occasion. Valanciunas has made at least one 3-pointer in 22 of his 49 (44.8%) starts.
Toronto’s now-gassed defense already struggles against opposing bigs and perimeter shooters. The Raptors gave up four 3-pointers to Chet Holmgren last night on 4-for-10 shooting. The Thunder shot 23-for-63 from beyond the arc. On Friday, the Raptors gave up a 3-pointer to Alperen Sengün and another two to Jabari Smith Valanciunas is trading at +150 (40%) to sink a 3-pointer on bet365, which is worth a half-unit wager to me. I may come back to him with a bet on his points over if Williamson gets ruled out, too.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jonas Valanciunas Over 0.5 3-Pointers +150 at bet365
Jonathan Kuminga Player Prop
The Golden State Warriors will visit the Brooklyn Nets this evening. The Nets aren’t a great team, but with Ben Simmons and Nicolas Claxton, they’re a solid rebounding unit. The Nets rank 12th in rebound rate on the year (50.3%) and 13th over the last three games (51.2%), of which Simmons has played two. OddsShopper Premium has identified an edge on the rebounding market for Jonathan Kuminga. The model has an ROI of 21.9% for rebound props over at BetMGM, at least when you place them 12 hours before tip-off. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Jonathan Kuminga under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 6.5 is priced at only -110 (52.4%) at BetMGM — which is worse than the true odds of -121 (54.8%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over under 6.5 for -139 (58.2%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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For non-market-based reasons, this Kuminga under makes sense because the talented forward isn’t so talented on the glass. He is averaging 4.6 rebounds per game this year on 0.185 per minute — he’d need 36-p minutes to go over this number at that rate.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Under 6.5 Rebounds -110 at BetMGM
Domantas Sabonis Player Prop
I’ve saved my favorite NBA player prop pick today for last: we’re going to fade Domantas Sabonis tonight. Sabonis, doubtlessly talented, is averaging 19.9 points and eight assists per game this year (27.9 P&A), but those rates have ticked down to 18.1 and 8.3 (26.4 P&A) over his last seven games. He now draws a tough matchup with the defensively efficient Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs rank fourth in defensive rating over the last seven (108.9) and second on the year (110.5).
The Cavs should limit Sabonis as they have limited other centers. Over the last seven games, Cleveland has surrendered the eighth-fewest points per game to centers (19.6) to go with the seventh-fewest assists (3.4). On the season, Cleveland ranks seventh (21.6) and fifth (3.8), respectively. While Jarrett Allen is questionable for this one, Evan Mobley, a better defender, doesn’t have an injury designation. Allen’s absence would certainly hurt, but Mobley is more than capable of picking up the slack.
Sabonis’ recent production versus the Cavaliers is a bit of a concern, as he is averaging 28 points and assists versus Cleveland over a three-game same with the Kings, including a 33 P&A performance back in November. However, Sabonis shot an absurd 80/50/55 in that one, far better than his usual rates this year (62/43/69), while the Kings shot 59/48/64 as a team, helping Sabonis tally 10 assists. But with the Cavs building momentum on defense and listed as favorites for this one — and with Sabonis averaging just 25.6 P&A in losses — I’m eager to fade him.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Domantas Sabonis Under 26.5 P&A -105 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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